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Category: health

10/12/08 01:43 - 53ºF - ID#46073

When animals attack

Thinking that I would avoid any problems with the world, I though that it would be a good idea to go over to a house of a friend of mine. He has a wife & a 6 month old child so they definitely do not get out much. I did warm him that I was coming down with something but he basically said that it was OK since hid kid was sleeping. It was pretty much a pretty chill night as our mutual friend also came over with his Eastern European "Friend." We just basically watched TV a movie on IFC and game 1 of the ALCS. Then as it was time for me to head home I go back in the living room to grab some tissue for my runny noise. As I dropped the box 1 or 2 times I grab what I need, blow my nose and put it back. As I turned around to head to the kitchen, their Brittany dog does this to me

Yea so on top of feeling like crap because there is stuff dripping out of my nose I have this to contend with. Hopefully I will manage to 1. Feel better and shake off this cold/sinus infection and 2. Have my calf heal up so it's not as sore. This is so my b-day on Wednesday isn't a downer. With only that day being the reason why I have not filled a prescription for some antibiotics since I don't want to be hindered in celebrating.
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Location: Youngstown, NY

Category: finance

10/09/08 11:31 - 61ºF - ID#46034

The Panic starts to really grip

I wonder if anyone reads this blog anymore due to being sick of reading the same old, same old?

Short Selling is back in full effect, if you didn't notice today!
Hooray for the return to free markets kinda...

I say enjoy it while it lasts. The guys on Fast Money think it will come to the government closing the markets. Here is some of their toughts: [box]Dylan Ratigan hosted CNBC's "Fast Money" Thursday night. He started the show with a discussion of the stock market crash today. He mentioned that over the last ten days the Dow has gone from 11,000 to below 9,000. Ratigan says there's a total crisis of confidence in the U.S. financial system. He says the debate now is when U.S. banks will be able to start lending in a rational way. Joe Terranova says the U.S. government needs to step in and be a buyer of futures. Tim Seymour says the plunge protection team is already buying futures.

Jon Najarian says he would love to trade against the government and he hopes they do it. "I don't think it's a good idea because they can't manage anything," he said. Zachary Karabell said this is a run on the equity markets. "This is the only liquid place to go globally for money on a daily basis," he said.

Ratigan asked the traders what a rational investor in the U.S. stock market should do now. Karabell says a ration investors in this environment shouldn't liquid all of their holdings. "If you don't' need the money tomorrow you don't need to run to your bank or computer and sell," he said. Terranova says we need the market to find stability and we need a convicted buyer in the market. Seymour said unless you have to sell you shouldn't be selling here. He explained the big sellers are hedge funds with redemptions and big mutual funds. Najarian said investors don't trust the market right now.

Terranova says we are in the process right now of deleveraging and it will stop at some point. "I guarantee you three years from now we will be higher than we are now," he added. Seymour said the market doesn't trust the regulators. He says hedge funds have thrown their playbooks out the window because of things like the short-sale ban.

Ratigan pointed out that General Motors' trading action today was the center piece of the American stock market story. Karabell said the S&P downgraded of GM's debt was backward looking. He says new economy companies like Apple and Research In Motion did well today and that's a sign that this market isn't completely indiscriminate.

CNBC's Hampton Pearson joined the crew to discuss the government's possible plan to take a direct equity investment in the banking sector. He said the government is looking at taking stakes in banks to help free up the credit markets. Karabell says the government needs to get involved here. Terranova said they will have to let some banks fail as part of this process.

CNBC's Mary Thompson joined the traders to discuss the latest developments between Citigroup and Wells FargoWachoviaEXCHANGE="NYSE" PRIMARY="NO"/>. She said Citigroup is now saying they will not be able to reach a mutual agreement with Wachovia. However, she pointed out that Citigroup says it remains willing to complete its first offer of $2.2 billion for Wachovia's banking operations. She also reported that Citigroup says it has strong legal claims against both Wells Fargo and Wachovia. Terranova says at the end of this Citigroup will get a settlement. Najarian says Citigroup should walk away and "shut-up" because the American tax payer will win with the Wells Fargo deal.

Jeffrey Harte, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill joined the traders to discuss the latest news on Wachovia and Citigroup. He said Citigroup will fight the deal. "The best result would have been if they had come to quick terms and raised capital right away," he added. Harte said at the end of the day it's very hard to do a financial takeover. He says the likely outcome will be a merger between Wachovia and Wells Fargo while Citigroup will get a settlement. He says the government is going to do whatever it can to prevent major players like Wachovia or Morgan Stanley from going under.

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman joined the traders to discuss the action in the stock market today. Gartman says it's probably not a bad idea to have the government come in and start buying U.S. stock futures. "My friends who are libertarians will be throwing things at me when I go home, but this has to be done," he said. Terranova says the removal of the specialists has exasperated the momentum trade. Gartman agreed and pointed to the action in General Motors today as an example. Gartman suggested the government should close the market for a few days.

Trades For A Bear

Ratigan asked the traders for some bear market strategies. Najarian says you can play consumer staples like Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive. He also mentioned he bought Wells Fargo, Wachovia and Bank of America today. Terranova said he wants to see the stock market plunge so we can get it over with. Seymour says a cash rich company like Exxon Mobil looks very interesting here. Terranova said he likes MasterCard, Research In Motion and Potash for plays on forced selling from hedge funds.

Short King

Noted short seller Bill Fleckenstein Capital joined the traders to discuss the plunging stock market. He says this is the consequence of having a credit and real estate bubble without any regulation followed. He said the situation got out-of-hand because the financial statements in America are so useless. "The government can't stop the market from going where it's going to go. And prior interventions didn't work," he added. Fleckenstein says he wouldn't go short the market right here because he doesn't want to get caught in the turn that will come.

What I agree with is this "run on the equity markets" is going to just cripple the raising of Capital for any business. Nothing is more liquid than the stock market. Without it the effect will just be devastating on any business.

It just seems that in 2 weeks or so we will just wake up to the Government owning every corporation,buying out everyone's mortgage and paying off everyone's bills. Ok, that doesn't seem likely but at this point anything seems possible.

The part of the suggestion that the Government close the markets only brings me to the thought that someone by the end of the year everyone's bank account will be frozen in a "Bank Holiday" like the did back in the 1930's. So if you can take out $1,000 or so just to be able to feed yourself just in case you can't use your debit card for a week or so when they, "Try to bring liquidity back to the banks."

From my read on what is going on GM is going to go belly up. The signs are all there, it's setting up like any other corporate failure over the last 8 years. You know that they're done when theie headquarters The Renaissance Center is up for sale. My question is who in their right mind would buy commercial real estate in downtown Detroit? I suppose someone else could remodel it as another casino with all suites for rooms.

On another local though I was thinking what all of this economic bloodbath means for Buffalo? First with GM going bankrupt, that is going to trigger more blood on the st with all of the credit default swaps that will be exposed once someone has to pay. It's basically like a parlay card with every NFL game for the week, you may take bets from people @ $5 a pop or so and you always keep the money since it is a very extremely almost impossible thing do do. Months and seasons go by without anyone hitting, you went and bought a Benz and use the weekly procedes for your payments. Well some guy did actually hit all 15 games one week. Now you're scrambling. That's where we are going to be if an S&P 500 company actually ends up in court. The scary part is that EVERYTHING will come out and part of me thinks that some of the reason why the government has been so quick to "save" the company of the week that faces difficulties is that they do not want what really is going on to come out.

OK, enough of credit default swaps. GM has a plant and thousands of retirees living here making good money in their golden years. With a GM Bankruptcy, they will no longer be making 50K in retirement with other perks. The effect on local commerce would be brutal.

The only bright side I see is that Buffalo NY is the Wall St of Collection agencies.

"The supply of delinquent debt is growing exponentially," said Mr. Siegel of Franklin Credit Solutions. "It's the tip of the iceberg and it's going to create a lot of jobs."

So I guess not all is lost for us I suppose...
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Location: Youngstown, NY

Category: finance

10/08/08 11:49 - 62ºF - ID#46008

Fed shooting blanks

I totally loved the 1/2 point rate cut that resulted in a lame ass rally and ended the day even more down.

Scary though, the Dow was @ 9600 in 1998. So if you "bought and held" for the last 10 years you are just about even if you include the dividends.

Actually I'm looking to take some profit. Something is telling me that the market will actually give us a bear market rally sometime soon. Then of course this will still ultimately end lower, especially with those evil short selling guys coming back very soon due to the expiration of the temporary rule change.
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Category: finance

10/08/08 12:09 - 49ºF - ID#45987

This S**T isn't funny anymore 2

Yea, another day another Doom post. I think my Halloween costume should be me going to the party as (e:vycious)

Yea, I'm loving this drop, although in reality it is just going to finance a great vacation or two and not get me ahead in the long run. I should be buying a house on cash, but actuallly right now to be honest I'm not sure I would be absolutely confident in cash holdings right now. I'm pretty convinced that by the end of the year we will have a message like this from a local U.S. Bank

A notice on Icesave's website said:

We are not currently processing any deposits or any withdrawal requests through our Icesave internet accounts. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause our customers. We hope to provide you with more information shortly.
Too bad you can't pay your utility bill or buy groceries.

With Great Depression 2 here and in your face I just don't see how Obama can lose the election without 1. An Israeli Incident or 2. The G.O.P. finding that skeleton proving something like he is not actually being a U.S. Citizen or some similar crazy internet rumor being proven true beyond a shadow of a doubt.

The debate was actually boring. I went over to my friend's house and we watched it on Bloomberg. Reading the New Flashes of the Asian Markets falling to new lows was more interesting to us than the recycled campaign stumps. Plus Tom Brokaw just kind of lost control at one point.

So, yea we're all F'ed. Take some money out of the bank and stuff it in your mattress just in case your account is frozen for a period of time so you don't go hungry or without lights and enjoy the next 3 weeks as McCain goes into "I'm DOLE, I'm DOLE, because I'm DOLE" Mode Is it me or is he just going to mail it in at this point? Then again does he really have a leg to stand on given our current economic situation? People vote democratic in economic clusterfuck times, period.
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Permalink: This_S_T_isn_t_funny_anymore_2.html
Words: 367
Location: Youngstown, NY

Category: finance

10/06/08 10:30 - 47ºF - ID#45970

The stock market isn't funny anymore

Shit, after today if you're buying any kind of stock you better be on the 2013 Plan according to Cramer

We're on on the other side for sure. To me it's just a matter of time before people totally start to panic and lose it. By the end of the year we should start seeing bank runs or attempts at it. The kicker is that when the banks decide when and how much they will give you back the money you deposited and people freak, you we will shit that only my Grandparents saw in Poland/Germany during WW2. I know Ron Paul is kind of a shit disturber but I did find this explanation of the real "Bailout Bill" had deep down inside of the language just frightening. Frankly it makes me want to stuff my mattress. After a day like today it's only a matter of months now.

Society is just going to be ugly next year and beyond. You haven't seen the beginning of the stress in marriages from the 8%-12% unemployment we are going to see shortly or the people that though they were going to have a nice sunset into their golden years. People may not even make it when they react like this

Then again there may be violence that most people will feel that is justified, when a guy cold cocked a Lehman Douchebag

So, I made $2,000 today outside of my job. It's not going to be like I'm going to retire on it or anything. Maybe I should listen to the Pope

The point is that the opportunity to make money on the downside is ending. At the end of the day the most you can make is when it hits 0. Yea, you can own a stock in a bull market and your profits theoretically could be infinite, but at the same time the "infinite growth" that we have been experiencing for the last 25 years has abruptly ended. I content that this "growth forever" in stocks or real estate is bunk, because we live in a finite world. All of this debt paid by more debt was a house of cards and it now has crashed down.

Deep down I think the real cynic in me knew that "they" wouldn't let the baby boomer retire millionaires. There just isn't' enough peope underneath them to keep the ponzi scheme going. I just cringe when I hear all the financial guys yap about "putting money away in your 401k for the long term, especially when you're young." Don't these people know that it took until 1957 to recover from 1929 and actually in reality 1961 when you factor in inflation? That's 32 Freaking years just to get even, let along making any return on your investment. We may be at the same point soon. Crap how many people even recently though about the "long term" when they look at their NASDAQ stocks? Remember 5000 on that exchange in March of 2000? OK it's all time high was 4572 but still 1862 today's close is a long way from that point. If you believe that B.S. I have some JDSU, LUcent or CIENa to sell you...if you have 25-30 years to wait to get your money back!!!

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Category: music

10/05/08 11:49 - 49ºF - ID#45951

The killers Human live on SNL

I was a bit surprised to see that they have some new stuff coming out. At least that is my conclusion form seeing them on SNL the other night. That makes me pretty happy. It almost is edging me to take another trip to Vegas soon.

Watch it before NBC Universal yanks it.
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Category: finance

10/03/08 11:03 - 48ºF - ID#45926

sucker rally

Too Funny

I was watching CNN who had a screen shot of C-SPAN and the market in another corner. The Dow was climbing up as more votes moved to the magic number of "218" Then as soon as it hit the market started to reverse from +296 orgasm almost straight down to -157 for the day. I guess it was a case of "Buy the Rumor and Sell the News!"

So I guess this isn't going to save everyone's 401K plans after all, since the market has sunk to a new low level matching Oct of 2005. Really we are going to look back at this attempt and sigh. Spending 700 Billion on some New Deal infrastructure project would have been so much better than the pork and other crap that was added to successfully tempt people to switch their vote.

The tough times have now officially arrived.
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Location: Youngstown, NY

Category: elections

10/03/08 01:20 - 48ºF - ID#45911

The other debate

Well I have to admit I didn't watch much of the VP debate tonight. I actually listened and watched the Canadian Prime Minister Debate. For starters the entire system seems to be much more cost effective and intense than our system. Stephen Harper called the election September 7th and the election is going to be held October 14th and the new Government will take office November 12th 8 days after the U.S. Election. It's just a straight to business approach as opposed to this 3 year marathon we go through where it seems there is more campaigning than actual governance. Even the format where all 5 parties basically go at each other, although with a moderator seems more entertaining than this Q&A format that just seems stale.

I lost my reply to Josh's post the other night. But I though I'd share a top 10 list from this show last night of which I did not get a chance to listen.

From what I took in tonight just ease dropping on CNBC the bailout can't save everything. World economies are just slowly down too much to absorb all of the inventory sitting out there in warehouses. Inventory costs money by the day, eventually when too much stuff piles up the layoffs will come slowly and surly. Then are we going to bailout the big box retailers? Are we then going to bail out the commercial real estate developers? The ones that even faced with an empty plaza vacated from an anchor like Ames, Hills or Vix; Who kept on building another brand spanking new strip mall with tight spaces that sits half empty? Are we going to bail those guys out as well?

With all the new pork that has been inserted, maybe it is just a patch until after the elections like that top 10 list indicated. They can't keep everyone going since the only people left to borrow money from is the counties where we buy our goods anyway. They just needed to get enough guys to switch by throwing a pet project or cause their way.
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Location: Youngstown, NY

Category: reflection

10/01/08 12:43 - 55ºF - ID#45873

weak extitentialist reflection

That way back index from google is kind of crazy in looking back. I remember I googled an ex-girlfriend around that time and discovered that she was married. I later found out that it was a totally insane unbalanced Vegas wedding and later confessed some crazy things. So from that experience although I did get a chuckle that search result was still there, although the page that lead to her email at the time has long been taken down obviously. Ah memories...

On another thought the good old existential side of myself got some pretty good material over the weekend. I kind of knew her as she was a waitress at a local restaurant where I washed dished as a kid. Later she was the local bartender as mentioned in the article and kind of an institution, although I rarely ever went there.

The scary part was that I actually was driving the 290 that night as I was coming home from a birthday get together at the house of a guy i work with around 12 midnight or so. It was eerie foggy that night as if it was out of some insane movie on IFC or Sundnace. It also kind of got me thinking as Monday would have been my sister's birthday, if she wasn't in a car accident.

What am I trying to say. It's really a reality check as to why I am being so conservative with my life. What do I gain from living a frugal life and not doing anything exciting with my time or money? Yea as I learned in August going to the Hard Rock Hotel in Vegas and partying like a rockstar isn't the answer to life, that rock and roll fantasy really threw me against the wall mentally in a way, but in some ways I needed to have reality slap me in the face. All that really did was reinforce the truth that you need close friends that give a shit about you if you ever get into a messy situation.

Another question is that even in the face of this coming clusterfuck (this bailout isn't going to save us all even in the shorterm "my opinion") did the people that spent and partied like there is no tomorrow have something right in their philosophy? They lived life to the fullest & some of them are getting their ass saved. Heck they most of them actually get laid and sleep with some beautiful people to boot. While stiffs like me just work, save and play it safe with most aspects of their life.

I guess what I'm just reflecting is maybe deep down inside I'm kind of disappointed that there isn't a payoff yet for the people that didn't overextend themselves. We'll have to get to the point of bank holidays and people selling pencils for some dorkish principles that I hold true to become attractive and pay off. The swagger of the last time period has not died off as of yet, unless you're (e:hodown) in NYC looking at people freaking out that their life as they knew it has ceased to exist.

If you made it this far thanks for reading my neurosis. I'm going to read some Jean-Paul Sartre and go to bed now...
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Category: finance

09/30/08 12:34 - 55ºF - ID#45856

-777 & -199

Yea, I'm a bit surprised that the numbers for the Dow and Nasdaq worked out so nice. The only time I can remember closing numbers being so freaky is when the U.S. went into Bosnia & the Dow closed @ 10,666. Actually thinking back to that time wasn't it the Clinton administration ? Wait someone did talk about the Clinton administration today:

There is some validity in the speech, but at the same time a lot of stuff was sure left out as to how we ended up at this place in the recent past. This video is for the most part a McCain campaign ad, but it does bring up one point. The GSE's that were protected by the democrats in committee here were NEVER under SOX or Sarbaines-Oxley that little Accounting law that was intended to prevent things like this from ever happening after Enron.

So all I'm saying is that both parties are to blame and nothing that was done 6 months or a 1 year ago caused this to all happen. Also 40% of the Democrats voted AGAINST the bill. Did she say the things above just to get a word of spit in knowing that the whole thing was dead at that point? What happened to the new era of post-partisanship?

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