There have been some ideas floating around the past few days, but the one I've been particularly interested in is the use of this vast pool of funds to purchase preferred stock in the troubled firms, rather than purchasing the illiquid debt. Having the government buy the distressed debt is foolhardy, for a few reasons. Firstly, nobody really knows what the debt is worth. Secondly, despite what your politicians were telling you, the federal government has nowhere near the capability to administrate the management of such a large problem effectively, and considering the downside it would be absolutely crazy to do so. Thirdly, and perhaps you agree with me, it is insane to pool $700b into a fund and hand it over to the same people who created this mess to begin with. There has to be another way to increase liquidity in our markets and I think a few people have found the answer.
George Soros has present a plan to the Dems, which isn't actually new, but hopefully with his cajoling the politicians can be convinced to take a more rational path.
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Now, the article makes a point of highlighting potential problems because, well, Soros is Soros and a lot of people in America hate his intrusion into our politics. Nevertheless, nobody should question his financial acumen and when the guy speaks, people should listen. I can't imagine liberal Democrats agreeing to lowering the corporate tax rate and I can't imagine Republicans agreeing to forcing the Treasury to back mortgages that have been renegotiated, but we'll see.
I think buying the preferred stock is the way forward because it will inject capital immediately into the credit market without the need to buy the bad debt. Buying the bad debt is an unacceptable risk to the American people. The truth of the matter is that these firms could have already sold this bad debt, but why take 10 cents on the dollar when the government may offer you 30? With this method taxpayers will actually have assets - something tangible to hold onto, rather than debt that is impossible to value. With preferred stock comes enhanced voting rights as well. The government, on behalf of the American people, will ensure that the fox is not guarding the hen house and will limit executive compensation. If some banks don't want to play ball and fail, so be it. This is America - we have smaller banks lined up to take advantage of the big boys and their hubris, and would cut off an arm for the opportunity to do so. Generally speaking, smaller banks are more efficiently managed anyway.
I would advocate for lowering the corporate tax rate to encourage skittish foreign investors to stick around, or even bring aboard new investment. The reality of America is that if this gets any worse, more foreign investment will be pulled and we will suffer a long lasting depression, not a recession. We need to encourage businesses and let them know that we want them to stay here and make money. My first instinct when I read this was to wrinkle my nose at the thought of suggesting "corporate welfare" in the midst of this problem. However, we have the second highest corporate tax rate in the world. We could get away with it previously because doing business in America was a premium opportunity that businesses would fight each other for. That is no longer the case, at least for now. The days of getting away with having the second highest corporate tax rate in the world are over if we want to maintain a robust economy through this mess. Foreigners have absolutely no confidence in our ability to move forward, so they are refusing to participate. We have to fix that.
As for the little guy - I'm the last guy in the world to suggest a socialist tenet as a solution to a problem, but there is no acceptable free market solution to the mortgage mess from the Main St. perspective. Economists say that the free market will work out the mess, but they openly admit that some people may fall through the cracks. I'm unsure about how acceptable that is - some people should have never taken the loans out to begin with while others are legitimately getting screwed through no fault of their own. I'm also unsure about the ability of the Treasury to unravel the mortgage mess in the way Soros describes. Where would the money come from anyway? We have $700b we're going to "invest" with, and if Obama gets elected we will have $1 trillion in new spending, not to mention $53 trillion in unfunded liabilities with SS, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. that NOBODY wants to reckon with. How does a CBO estimate of 25% base federal tax rate at the turn of the century for the poorest Americans sound? How does a CBO estimate of 88% corporate tax rate sound? With that kind of scenario we may see the end of America as we know it in this very century and nobody wants to talk about it! Are we going to produce yet another $1 trillion to back mortgages, some of which should have never been written? If you make $40,000 per year, you obviously should not be in a $400,000 house, so I envision that the end game will involve people losing their homes regardless of the scenario.
No amount of financial deftness will make unaffordable housing affordable. That is, unless home prices in distressed areas drop 40% like some suggest they will do. In that case, the judges can rewrite the mortgages based on a more reasonable base asset value and mitigate any potential fallout. In any case, I don't believe Americans will bail out Wall St. without a solution for homeowners tacked onto the plan, and I'm fairly sure Democrats will insist on some sort of measure. In my view, it is necessary just like being forced to deal with all of this garbage is necessary. People that legitimately need help and are getting the shaft deserve the government's attention; more so than the baron robbers who are the first in line, begging for mercy. To what degree the government is going to intervene remains to be seen, but I'm in full support of an intervention in the housing market as long as it is done intelligently.
Financial scaremongering is the activity du jour on Capitol Hill. Let's not be naive - we have a serious problem that could potentially collapse our economic system, so we have to be big boys and girls about this and take one on the chin to save the house of cards from falling. However, we're smarter than this. We know better than to rush a bad plan through simply because President Bush, Secretary Paulson and congressional leadership are feeling pressure to fix the problem immediately. Are we even sure how immediate the problem is? Do we really have to push a bill through in 48 hours when maybe a week of serious, well thought out discussions would serve us better?
In this midst of this panic they are playing the blame game, and to be honest if I were King of America I'd fire every single one of them, eliminate the concept of seniority, make it illegal to serve more than two consecutive terms and ask the American people to start over with their government by voting in an entirely new Congress. Those politicians who encouraged reckless borrowing (aka forcing lenders under the threat of criminal action to provide affordable loans to low income people, based on 'stated income'), prevented regulation of Fanny and Freddie (Demos), prevented regulation of the financial markets (Repubs) should no longer have viable political careers. Our Congress has well-earned their 9-10% approval rating - we have the worst Congress to have ever been assembled.
Anyway, you know how I feel about politicians.
(e:tinypliny), I visited the house and toured it. I also took pictures of myself next to a Tufts University sign. Cheesy, but fun.
Oh and you know what is somewhat weird? Don't you guys think there are too many electric lines in front of that house in the picture??
@(e:janelle): Have you ever stayed at the house??
Haha, your comment about eating seafood the wrong way reminded me about that scene in the Mr. Bean Holiday movie where he eats the crazy raw oysters or rather, just tries to and that ends in a disaster... for the posh lady next to him. That was a hysterical scene!
@(e:janelle): OH MY. I always wondered if you were Tufts of the Tufts!!!! So you are! I know royalty!!!!!! :D
She's of the "Tufts" Tufts!
I'd love to spend a minimum of three days exploring the city of Boston, but unfortunately for work we haven't had much cause to spend more than a day or so at a time in New England, so my opportunities have been limited. I might have to visit one day on my own dime! Heh.
Yeah. I definitely married up.
Tufts, of Tufts University too! You've got a nice blue blood pedigree :)
I loved visiting Boston! If you're still there you should go to Medford and see my family's ancestral home. It's the oldest still standing brick home in the country, called the Peter Tufts House.
:::link:::