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I have to admit, I'm very surprised by this. I expected McCain to get a bit of a bump after the convention, but a 15-point lead? Truly unexpected. There are a variety of factors that contribute to this shift, but it is a fairly obvious statement that Gov. Palin and her appeal has drawn more voters to the GOP. Love her or hate her, obviously she's been effective at getting middle America and political independents on John McCain's side.
Actually, if you read the data you'll see that among voters that are purely independent, McCain has a 20% increase over Obama among those individuals.
At this point the parties are entrenched in their choices, so very little shifting is going to occur. It remains to be seen how many conservative Democrats will shift over - according to this Gallup data the number of conservative Democrats favoring McCain over Obama has increased from 15% to 25%. Also unknown is how much further the numbers will increase on the GOP side as a result of additional enthusiasm among conservatives, who have helped to pull McCain's numbers higher as well.
Former Mayor of SF stokes Democrat Fears of the "Palin Effect"
Willie Brown, former mayor of San Francisco, is one of the most colorful and interesting politicians you'll ever meet. If you ask me, it is too bad that SF term limits allowed Gavin Newsom to slither into office. The man has had a very interesting political career in California that started in the 1960's. Anyway, he wrote a piece that appeared in the SF Chronicle that very much surprised me.
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Overall I thought Willie was astute in his analysis of the Palin effect, love it or hate it. The only thing I really would take issue with is Mayor Brown's assertion that the press will treat Palin as the have Obama. Beeeeeeee Essssssss. That has already been proven wrong.
As an aside, Willie has a funny entry at the very bottom, addressing the recent string of restaurant robberies in Oakland (think Pulp Fiction):
By the way, there's a new dining tip for people going out in Oakland.
Be sure to order soup.
That way when the robbery starts, you can slip off your jewelry and drop it into soup so the robbers won't see it.
Ok, now that is funny. I wish we had more politicians capable of social commentary like this. It might actually endear them to us!
For a guy who hates SF, you do spend a lot of time obsessing about the city, (e:josh) :-D
Willie Brown is the consummate politician; as much at home in City Hall as in some mafioso's den.
Oh, and about the press? Last time I checked, Palin was hiding from the press, just like Dick Cheney. Seems like a Republican thing: send someone else out to fight your wars, while you soil your pants in the bunker.
Hahah.. that's a good tip about soup. I will be sure to remember it when I am in Oakland!