I like being the first one in at work. No interruptions, a nice start to the morning.
That's all :)
Jim's Journal
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10/02/2008 07:43 #45886
First!Category: work
09/30/2008 09:38 #45858
ZOMG DOOOOMEDCategory: economics
Actually, I am glad that the bailout failed. We'll now get a smaller, more incremental bailout. Rough ride for the next year though, no matter what.
Japan in the 90's went through a crisis very similar to ours, a huge asset bubble and then a giant markdown.
I get what the crisis is about - liquidity - but there's more then one way to solve it. If we prop up existing institutions no questions asked, we'll end up like Japan in the 90's, where zombie banks were technically fine but actually not able to loan much money anyways, thus dragging the crisis out into stagnation for a decade.
The current failed plan was to buy the bad assets at their original inflated values, sell them back to the market at a reduced rate, and use the funds from selling them to buy additional bad assets and repeat the process until all the money was totally gone. That is, if you believe the conference call that was held between the government representatives and Wall Street insiders ( mp3 torrent
), instead of what was said publicly.
Banks operate on the velocity of money. They take money in, send it out again. Don't think of them as repositories, but instead as intermediaries between those who need to hold cash and those who need to spend cash. The banking system is not set up for stasis.
The proposed plan would've increased the velocity of money. Something does need to be done, but jumping to the most drastic expensive plan doesn't sit right with me. I'm totally up for $500 billion worth of no interest loans, something along those lines.
But not recapitalization of the largest banks via burning down $700 billion. Plenty of smaller banks are doing fine. Those are the ones that should be getting help, to replace the large burdened banks. A new day on Wallstreet, slaughter of the behemoths is what sounds good to me.
If 10 years from now there are no familiar old names on Wallstreet, and a new crop of giants risen from the ashes of this meltdown, I'll be a happy camper.
Japan in the 90's went through a crisis very similar to ours, a huge asset bubble and then a giant markdown.
I get what the crisis is about - liquidity - but there's more then one way to solve it. If we prop up existing institutions no questions asked, we'll end up like Japan in the 90's, where zombie banks were technically fine but actually not able to loan much money anyways, thus dragging the crisis out into stagnation for a decade.
The current failed plan was to buy the bad assets at their original inflated values, sell them back to the market at a reduced rate, and use the funds from selling them to buy additional bad assets and repeat the process until all the money was totally gone. That is, if you believe the conference call that was held between the government representatives and Wall Street insiders ( mp3 torrent
), instead of what was said publicly.Banks operate on the velocity of money. They take money in, send it out again. Don't think of them as repositories, but instead as intermediaries between those who need to hold cash and those who need to spend cash. The banking system is not set up for stasis.
The proposed plan would've increased the velocity of money. Something does need to be done, but jumping to the most drastic expensive plan doesn't sit right with me. I'm totally up for $500 billion worth of no interest loans, something along those lines.
But not recapitalization of the largest banks via burning down $700 billion. Plenty of smaller banks are doing fine. Those are the ones that should be getting help, to replace the large burdened banks. A new day on Wallstreet, slaughter of the behemoths is what sounds good to me.
If 10 years from now there are no familiar old names on Wallstreet, and a new crop of giants risen from the ashes of this meltdown, I'll be a happy camper.
tinypliny - 10/01/08 21:59
Again, a very interesting post and comments! Can you do a common-lingo post on what you think might be the repercussions of the 700bn bailout failing?
Again, a very interesting post and comments! Can you do a common-lingo post on what you think might be the repercussions of the 700bn bailout failing?
hodown - 09/30/08 14:17
I'm ok with the revamping of wall street just as long as I can keep my finance job (and all it's perks).
I'm ok with the revamping of wall street just as long as I can keep my finance job (and all it's perks).
joshua - 09/30/08 13:26
With regard to your last paragraph - that is exactly what is going to happen, one way or another. After all, three of the five big banks in NY are already a part of history and the niche players are picking up the slack.
Most Americans are queasy about the bailout as is, so I agree that if it were structured via the implementation of loans it would be a better deal, zero-interest or not. Providing such a large amount of currency to flush the "illiquid" debt should be reward enough for these jackals. Regular folks have to eat a **** sandwich over this, so even if they decided to charge a modest interest rate loans are a reasonable idea. Where in the world could somebody possibly borrow that kind of money interest free anyway? If anybody can find out I would like them to point the US Government in that direction.
Many people are selling this plan as a bulwark against potential erosion of lending capability on the part of holding banks. What happens when we get put on the hook for this money and the banks lend to themselves but not the people? Paulson et. al. have been criticized for not being able to phrase this bailout in plain English, explaining the scenario and how it may affect life at home. People want to know if they will be able to get a car loan, and small businesses want to know if they can get bridge loans to meet payroll. We are being told that yes, this will loosen the chokehold on the credit market, but I am still skeptical about how that will shake out for regular people.
Interesting article today from a Harvard egghead, advocating for bankruptcy rather than a bailout. :::link:::
With regard to your last paragraph - that is exactly what is going to happen, one way or another. After all, three of the five big banks in NY are already a part of history and the niche players are picking up the slack.
Most Americans are queasy about the bailout as is, so I agree that if it were structured via the implementation of loans it would be a better deal, zero-interest or not. Providing such a large amount of currency to flush the "illiquid" debt should be reward enough for these jackals. Regular folks have to eat a **** sandwich over this, so even if they decided to charge a modest interest rate loans are a reasonable idea. Where in the world could somebody possibly borrow that kind of money interest free anyway? If anybody can find out I would like them to point the US Government in that direction.
Many people are selling this plan as a bulwark against potential erosion of lending capability on the part of holding banks. What happens when we get put on the hook for this money and the banks lend to themselves but not the people? Paulson et. al. have been criticized for not being able to phrase this bailout in plain English, explaining the scenario and how it may affect life at home. People want to know if they will be able to get a car loan, and small businesses want to know if they can get bridge loans to meet payroll. We are being told that yes, this will loosen the chokehold on the credit market, but I am still skeptical about how that will shake out for regular people.
Interesting article today from a Harvard egghead, advocating for bankruptcy rather than a bailout. :::link:::
09/29/2008 09:35 #45835
I Can See It From My HouseCategory: politics
Well OK, I just posted that other thing but this is too good to not also make a journal.
Original CBS interview w/ transcript:
I can't wait for the VP debate this week! It's going to be a disaster. That is, unless they manage to take back all the nonsense they've been force-feeding her for a month now. She would've been better off just being her own person instead of programmed to spout talking points.
I was afraid of her for a long time, but they wasted her.
--- UPDATE ---
Check out this bingo score card: play along from home!
Original CBS interview w/ transcript:
I can't wait for the VP debate this week! It's going to be a disaster. That is, unless they manage to take back all the nonsense they've been force-feeding her for a month now. She would've been better off just being her own person instead of programmed to spout talking points.
I was afraid of her for a long time, but they wasted her.
--- UPDATE ---
Check out this bingo score card:
play along from home!
tinypliny - 10/01/08 22:01
Apparently, despite all this stupidity in plain sight, many people will continue to believe that she is capable enough for the job and will vote for her, as I learned over the weekend.
Apparently, despite all this stupidity in plain sight, many people will continue to believe that she is capable enough for the job and will vote for her, as I learned over the weekend.
trisha - 09/29/08 21:13
omg, hilarious. i too can't wait for this "debate"---which is sure to be great TV.
omg, hilarious. i too can't wait for this "debate"---which is sure to be great TV.
brit - 09/29/08 19:14
this is hugely funny, I sent it to all the political scientists I know. Why can't Republicans just admit that she is a moron and move on? I mean, there's being a partisan hack and being a partisan twat!
this is hugely funny, I sent it to all the political scientists I know. Why can't Republicans just admit that she is a moron and move on? I mean, there's being a partisan hack and being a partisan twat!
09/29/2008 08:54 #45834
The Internet - Rule 34(regarding Paul's journal: )
From xkcd - CC licensed -
)
From xkcd - CC licensed -
tinypliny - 10/01/08 22:03
Hahaha.. the birth of new net ideas.
Hahaha.. the birth of new net ideas.
09/27/2008 21:38 #45812
B-52's
tinypliny - 10/01/08 22:09
Actually, I don't know the band but the bus got caught in a traffic jam and people in the bus made the most of it by singing along to one of the songs. The lady next to me told me the name of the band. I was a bit hypoglycemic at that point because I hadn't eaten dinner and what with all that sound, I heard her saying "Beat Fit Eat too's" and remember thinking that it was a crazy and weird name for a band!
Actually, I don't know the band but the bus got caught in a traffic jam and people in the bus made the most of it by singing along to one of the songs. The lady next to me told me the name of the band. I was a bit hypoglycemic at that point because I hadn't eaten dinner and what with all that sound, I heard her saying "Beat Fit Eat too's" and remember thinking that it was a crazy and weird name for a band!
tinypliny - 10/01/08 22:04
I heard them as I went past in the bus! :)
I heard them as I went past in the bus! :)
metalpeter - 09/28/08 09:40
Hope you had a great time I thought about going but currenly it wasn't an option Based on cash vs. how much I like them, I also don't know the music of the openers so I hope you liked all the bands.
Hope you had a great time I thought about going but currenly it wasn't an option Based on cash vs. how much I like them, I also don't know the music of the openers so I hope you liked all the bands.
I made big plans with (e:boxerboi) to do the 7-3 workday but I never made it after the first day. Pathetic lazy me. I think he still does it, though. He is not my hero for nothing! :)
Don't be afraid to come home either :p
I think i am mad at myself for referring to my job as my 'profession'.
even in my profession it is nice sometimes. But then it goes waaayyy too fast!
That is the very same reason I like being the last one in at work, because after 5 everyone leaves and I am there till 7 or 9 without interruption and can actually get work done.