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09/21/2008 15:10 #45748
Proof Fall Is Here09/20/2008 10:14 #45737
7 YearsCategory: science!
It occurs to me as I sit here and type, that the underwear I'm wearing is seven years old. It's probably the only pair of boxers that I still own from way back then, but still. Ancient, right?
Science tells us that all the atoms in our bodies are cycled out and replaced, and that it takes about seven years or so to get a complete swap. Essentially, the underwear I'm wearing right now is more permanent than my actual human self, but for the thread of consciousness that weaves the whole dance of molecular this and that together.
I think I'll throw them out, I've noticed a couple holes.
Science tells us that all the atoms in our bodies are cycled out and replaced, and that it takes about seven years or so to get a complete swap. Essentially, the underwear I'm wearing right now is more permanent than my actual human self, but for the thread of consciousness that weaves the whole dance of molecular this and that together.
I think I'll throw them out, I've noticed a couple holes.
09/17/2008 12:07 #45706
Of Past and PresentCategory: life
Let me respectfully remind you:
Life and Death are of supreme importance.
Time swiftly passes by and opportunity is lost.
Each of us should strive to awaken.
Awaken, take heed, do not squander your life.
-- Buddhist Evening Gatha
My favorite author died this week, my boss died a few weeks ago, and today is the anniversary of my Mother's death. The thread of these three deaths has been at the forefront of my mind, no surprise. They are all tied together, in their base and inescapable human ways, but marked by such deep contrasts that it's impossible not to sift through and try to find meaning, to learn something of the nature of being in this time and place. To reflect on my own existence.
Every year on the day of my Mother's death, I write about her loss. On her birthday I try to make a post about her life. It's been three years since she died, and this time I'll depart from the usual pattern and talk of myself, and of others who have died recently.
David Foster Wallace was the pre-eminent postmodern author of the last 15 years. He was the person to best employ the English language since Shakespeare walked the Earth. He died this week, a suicide. He was 46. His work was intellectual and all-encompassing. He would write about subjects and consider all angles, paint them vividly, but always carried a specific intention of meaning and attitude towards what he was writing that shone through. His writing spared not a single ounce of truth, missed no branched paths to travel along, and appealed to the reader in only the most direct expressions he could muster. He towered in my mind as an example of giving only your best, unfailingly. Of juggling insight and madness and confusion and constructing glorious insight from within. To have him give up, decide not to try anymore, cuts me to the core. I had not realized he was my hero until he died, as I generally avoid having heroes.
I am flawed through and through. I try every day to be a better person, and fail. That is merely human, but maximally humiliating in practice. I don't know how to do it any differently. I just need to keep trying, harder and better. My Mom used to say, "such is life", and I've resorted to using that as my shield for pain and distress I encounter. Yet, particular circumstances of life are painful and beautiful in ways that shouldn't be reduced to aphorisms. You can't live without choosing meaning and vision broader then what you've been handed down by those who precede you. So, such is life, to question deeper then you're capable of understanding. The journey is the destination, goes another famous saying, but that's not always enough, as David Foster Wallace apparently decided.
My boss and friend Luke, who also committed suicide, died three weeks ago. Killed himself, yes, but in this case it's easier to understand why. He was diagnosed with cancer, and had a serious chance of not making it through treatment. The manner of his death was carefully planned. All his affairs were put in order, and he let no sign of his decision slip to those around him. A deliberate and personal choice of how to end his death. I don't harbor any ill-will to his decision. What I do think of, is his life - painted starkly sad in his death. He died here, a stranger to this city, with no close family and few friends. Only a co-worker to find him, in bed, naked and bruised and lifeless, and no way to express his pain without feeling guilt burdening those to whom he had few ties.
I have learned over time how to exist in a relationship, and share my life with another person. That is the truly rewarding accomplishment that I'll count on until the day I die. I have to work every day to not be selfish and to not close myself off. It's a constant struggle but one I feel I'm winning. James, I am sorry for my failings and glad for my successes, and I am so thankful for your presence that it hurts. There is nothing that could change my life more, or better, than my relationship with you.
Rosanne, my Mother, has been gone for years now. Not to suicide, but sudden - very sudden, at the age of 54. I no longer pick up the phone absent-mindedly, thinking to call her for advice or to chat. Often the saddest part of thinking of her is that it doesn't happen every day any longer. There is much I could now say about her, but I'll restrict myself this year to once again thanking her for never sparing an ounce in giving me whatever she could. For sending me into this world as a human being, capable of compassion and forgiveness.
What comes before and what comes after is mere shadow next to this moment. I tell of these people to shine up the past, make a flicker of connection, and to feel less alone. Picking and choosing certain words to make years of random meaningful moments align. Right now I'm still breathing, and in agony over these losses, each in different ways. I wonder what story might be told of me, my life and death. I wonder how I can change that story in the time I have left.
libertad - 09/17/08 23:09
That was very nice jim. It is nice that you can share this much. I have not been in your shoes, although I had a friend who killed himself. He was happy once and then he took too much acid and was never the same again. He died on the second attempt at his life. He didn't have cancer but there was something unlocked in him from the drugs that he couldn't handle.
Anyways, thank you for your post to remind us all to count our blessings.
That was very nice jim. It is nice that you can share this much. I have not been in your shoes, although I had a friend who killed himself. He was happy once and then he took too much acid and was never the same again. He died on the second attempt at his life. He didn't have cancer but there was something unlocked in him from the drugs that he couldn't handle.
Anyways, thank you for your post to remind us all to count our blessings.
tinypliny - 09/17/08 20:03
(e:Jim), that is excellently written post.
I know, not many people would agree, but I really don't view calculated suicide as a negative or a defeatist thing to do. I see it as a way of asserting some control over your own death. Since death is an un-dissectable part of life, suicide is, by extension, an attempt at bringing an extra (though rather morbid) element of control into your life.
People who decide on suicide often have had a string of uncontrollable events happen to them before the act. It takes a very strong mind indeed to go against evolutionary traits and decide on ending's one's life.
This is not to say that I recommend suicide or support it. I just want to point out that the fact that someone committed suicide doesn't automatically mean that they have given up completely. There is always an element of victory in acheiving what one sets out to do and in their case, it was ending their own life.
It may have a un-erasable social stigma attached to it because its seen as an awful thing to do to your family and friends. But that's about the feeling of others left behind. Why don't people think about the those who have chosen death of their own free will? They probably couldn't completely live the life they would have chosen to live so they just went ahead and chose death. The anger and pain of those who are left behind can in perhaps in no way compare to the anger and pain of people who who are left feeling trapped in life as well as death.
(e:Jim), that is excellently written post.
I know, not many people would agree, but I really don't view calculated suicide as a negative or a defeatist thing to do. I see it as a way of asserting some control over your own death. Since death is an un-dissectable part of life, suicide is, by extension, an attempt at bringing an extra (though rather morbid) element of control into your life.
People who decide on suicide often have had a string of uncontrollable events happen to them before the act. It takes a very strong mind indeed to go against evolutionary traits and decide on ending's one's life.
This is not to say that I recommend suicide or support it. I just want to point out that the fact that someone committed suicide doesn't automatically mean that they have given up completely. There is always an element of victory in acheiving what one sets out to do and in their case, it was ending their own life.
It may have a un-erasable social stigma attached to it because its seen as an awful thing to do to your family and friends. But that's about the feeling of others left behind. Why don't people think about the those who have chosen death of their own free will? They probably couldn't completely live the life they would have chosen to live so they just went ahead and chose death. The anger and pain of those who are left behind can in perhaps in no way compare to the anger and pain of people who who are left feeling trapped in life as well as death.
gardenmama - 09/17/08 18:37
Your post is hauntingly beautiful. I am sorry for your losses.
Your post is hauntingly beautiful. I am sorry for your losses.
drew - 09/17/08 13:02
Also, you made me want to read Wallace. I am embarrassed that I have not yet.
Also, you made me want to read Wallace. I am embarrassed that I have not yet.
drew - 09/17/08 12:49
A beautiful post. Thank you.
A beautiful post. Thank you.
joshua - 09/17/08 12:35
Hey Jim -
I remember your posts about your mother fondly. I particularly appreciated how you posted pictures of your mom on vacations and in family environments. You are one of three people who I know who lost their mother too early, and so I feel sadness in seeing somebody suffer through an event like that. This time of year has got to be a dark time for you emotionally - God knows it would be for me. I never met your mother, but it was obvious to me in seeing pictures and reading your stories that she was an integral part of your life. I suppose the struggle is in balancing the part of you that wishes you could talk to her right now, along with the other part of you that wants to focus on the positive rather than the negative. My grandpa was a parent to (e:jason) and I, and watching him die burned a hole in my heart that I deal with still today.
I don't know what else to say, so I'll just leave it at that. I know you are an atheist, but let me offer it anyway - God Bless your mom and everyone else you care about who are gone.
Hey Jim -
I remember your posts about your mother fondly. I particularly appreciated how you posted pictures of your mom on vacations and in family environments. You are one of three people who I know who lost their mother too early, and so I feel sadness in seeing somebody suffer through an event like that. This time of year has got to be a dark time for you emotionally - God knows it would be for me. I never met your mother, but it was obvious to me in seeing pictures and reading your stories that she was an integral part of your life. I suppose the struggle is in balancing the part of you that wishes you could talk to her right now, along with the other part of you that wants to focus on the positive rather than the negative. My grandpa was a parent to (e:jason) and I, and watching him die burned a hole in my heart that I deal with still today.
I don't know what else to say, so I'll just leave it at that. I know you are an atheist, but let me offer it anyway - God Bless your mom and everyone else you care about who are gone.
09/09/2008 23:07 #45620
Yay JamesCongrats, (e:James), you spent three months kicking ass and being
awesome. Sam Hoyt won!
jason - 09/10/08 18:13
Congratulations, (e:James). I don't have a problem with people voting based on values but I thought the TV ad was really, really low, and not too far off from saying "If you wouldn't trust him alone with your daughter, why would you trust him in Albany?" Ish.
I remember roadblocks on Delaware by the Wine store not too long ago. I just know it seems like there have been way more than usual this summer, right after work when everyone is leaving for the burbs. I can't recall if it was an election day the last time I saw one. They've been policing the Square pretty tightly as well and setting up drunk checkpoints.
Congratulations, (e:James). I don't have a problem with people voting based on values but I thought the TV ad was really, really low, and not too far off from saying "If you wouldn't trust him alone with your daughter, why would you trust him in Albany?" Ish.
I remember roadblocks on Delaware by the Wine store not too long ago. I just know it seems like there have been way more than usual this summer, right after work when everyone is leaving for the burbs. I can't recall if it was an election day the last time I saw one. They've been policing the Square pretty tightly as well and setting up drunk checkpoints.
drew - 09/10/08 14:31
My vote is for "not coincidence," especially as this is the second time it has happened on an election day and I am feeling particularly pessimistic about our government today.
My vote is for "not coincidence," especially as this is the second time it has happened on an election day and I am feeling particularly pessimistic about our government today.
janelle - 09/10/08 12:09
I think it's a coincidence. They've had roadblocks at that very same location recently checking for inspection stickers. I've been through it twice now. It was usually in the late afternoon/early evening. And it did back up traffic a lot.
I think I would still be tempted to complain though. Events in the city should be somewhat orchestrated to avoid such issues. The last time I voted, the city moved some of the voting places around. My voting location was at the fire station on Essex, but sometime in the early evening they moved it somewhere else.
I think it's a coincidence. They've had roadblocks at that very same location recently checking for inspection stickers. I've been through it twice now. It was usually in the late afternoon/early evening. And it did back up traffic a lot.
I think I would still be tempted to complain though. Events in the city should be somewhat orchestrated to avoid such issues. The last time I voted, the city moved some of the voting places around. My voting location was at the fire station on Essex, but sometime in the early evening they moved it somewhere else.
jim - 09/10/08 11:53
Between Forest and BuffState there was a road block, where the police were checking inspection stickers. North Elmwood area voters vote at McKinley High School, and had to drive through the heavily congested road block to vote.
Maybe it's just a coincidence that the only time I can possible remember a mid-week roadblock like that happened to occur the night of the primary where City Hall was desperately trying to knock out someone like this, but I think that's just little bit too unbelievable. I think it was on purpose. Sam's heaviest support is in that area.
Between Forest and BuffState there was a road block, where the police were checking inspection stickers. North Elmwood area voters vote at McKinley High School, and had to drive through the heavily congested road block to vote.
Maybe it's just a coincidence that the only time I can possible remember a mid-week roadblock like that happened to occur the night of the primary where City Hall was desperately trying to knock out someone like this, but I think that's just little bit too unbelievable. I think it was on purpose. Sam's heaviest support is in that area.
drew - 09/10/08 11:41
they did?
they did?
mrdeadlier - 09/10/08 11:16
I am a father and I am demanding answers, lol.
I am a father and I am demanding answers, lol.
jim - 09/10/08 11:13
Now Sam Hoyt just has to make it worth it by being as good this next term as he was last term. He talked about fighting for WNY last night, and I think he meant it, so I'm OK with voting for him. Better him then City Hall puppets.
I still can't believe they set up police road blocks on Elmwood to keep people discouraged from voting, yuck.
Now Sam Hoyt just has to make it worth it by being as good this next term as he was last term. He talked about fighting for WNY last night, and I think he meant it, so I'm OK with voting for him. Better him then City Hall puppets.
I still can't believe they set up police road blocks on Elmwood to keep people discouraged from voting, yuck.
janelle - 09/10/08 09:37
Good work, James!
Good work, James!
libertad - 09/10/08 07:35
Just for the record, I voted for Hoyt when I got a pamphlet from him with his picture on the cover and upside down pink triangles all around him. I thought now that is someone I can trust! Congrats James! That is such great experience for you.
Just for the record, I voted for Hoyt when I got a pamphlet from him with his picture on the cover and upside down pink triangles all around him. I thought now that is someone I can trust! Congrats James! That is such great experience for you.
james - 09/10/08 03:43
I have been up for 24 hours now, but I am so wired from a victory. Even though a Republican millionaire dumped more than twice what an expensive assembly race usually costs, even though they used slimy tactics, even though they used illegal practices we won and we won by over 15 points! Despite what you think of Sam Hoyt we showed that you cannot buy an election with the right candidate.
Even though i am unemployed I am very excited for both myself, the team, and the city of Buffalo. Way to go everyone!
I have been up for 24 hours now, but I am so wired from a victory. Even though a Republican millionaire dumped more than twice what an expensive assembly race usually costs, even though they used slimy tactics, even though they used illegal practices we won and we won by over 15 points! Despite what you think of Sam Hoyt we showed that you cannot buy an election with the right candidate.
Even though i am unemployed I am very excited for both myself, the team, and the city of Buffalo. Way to go everyone!
tinypliny - 09/10/08 03:11
COoooonnnnGRAAAATTTTZ!
COoooonnnnGRAAAATTTTZ!
09/15/2008 14:42 #45689
I'm not panicking yet, but...Category: finance
Lehman goes under, Merrill sold for a song. The weekly Sunday slaughter on Wallstreet continues.
Lehman is being allowed to fail instead of bailed out, score one for moral hazard, and that won't affect individual Americans as much as if it were FRE/FNM, which actually are too big to fail.
Yet, the concerning part, I can't find any press or research on the actual market value of CDO's. When Lehman's CDO's are sold at market, suddenly other financial companies have a way to value their own hand-wavy balance sheets and that's what scares me. Day of reckoning. Sunlight-as-disinfectant is a great idea and is what we need for the long term, but I do fear actually living through that process, and am glad the industry I work in is education, a bit removed from the greater turmoil.
Also, there are still big lending institutions that have yet to go under but appear to be teetering: Wachovia and WaMu. And, AIG, the insurance company, is pretty much insolvent and now has permission to borrow from itself to continue operating. That's insanity. I bet one of those 3 companies is in the news next Sunday as being forced under or into acquisition. And another the week after that.
"They can make a bridge loan to themselves" - Gov Patterson, about AIG. Sign of times during the Bank-apocalypse?
If it turns out the Bank of America was allowed to fund their purchase of Merrill with treasury funds secured against CDO's, I really will have lost all faith in the market personally. It's gotten down to glorified check kiting. (Update - supposedly a stock swap, so maybe this fear is unfounded?)
The over all derivatives market is something like $100 trillion dollars in the US , and granted most of that is never going to see the light of day or be made actual, but can any person honestly understand the effects of four levels of chopped and diced risk? Institutions clearly can't. Our elected representatives surely don't. I don't! Maybe we need some restraints on how imaginary investments can get before they're plain old fraud. 2nd order derivation is about where I lose my ability to follow along, and I'm a fairly smart guy.
So, what it means, as I see it: no more living on credit for Americans as individuals or as a nation. It's going to hurt. I have a feeling that I won't be able to buy a home until I save 20% of the purchase price, like back in the good old days.
Why? Not letting 2001 become a real get-rid-of-the-deadwood recession, but instead injecting insane cash into the system, and letting real estate values build up to soak up the liquidity and prop up the economy, because it had nowhere else to go but overseas. Financial markets were deregulated, allowing investment banks to merge with regular banks, removing firewalls and independence and creating bizarre shadow world markets that are magnitudes larger in notional dollar value then the stock market. For the last 30 years, our economic measuring tools have been made worthless by presidents of both parties, making the situation seem less dire then it actually is, inflating or hiding information to make themselves look good. Also, a half trillion dollar war in Iraq didn't help.
I do not see a soft landing in store for us, and am glad I have another 35 years to be able to save up money to retire at some point.
Lehman is being allowed to fail instead of bailed out, score one for moral hazard, and that won't affect individual Americans as much as if it were FRE/FNM, which actually are too big to fail.
Yet, the concerning part, I can't find any press or research on the actual market value of CDO's. When Lehman's CDO's are sold at market, suddenly other financial companies have a way to value their own hand-wavy balance sheets and that's what scares me. Day of reckoning. Sunlight-as-disinfectant is a great idea and is what we need for the long term, but I do fear actually living through that process, and am glad the industry I work in is education, a bit removed from the greater turmoil.
Also, there are still big lending institutions that have yet to go under but appear to be teetering: Wachovia and WaMu. And, AIG, the insurance company, is pretty much insolvent and now has permission to borrow from itself to continue operating. That's insanity. I bet one of those 3 companies is in the news next Sunday as being forced under or into acquisition. And another the week after that.
"They can make a bridge loan to themselves" - Gov Patterson, about AIG. Sign of times during the Bank-apocalypse?
If it turns out the Bank of America was allowed to fund their purchase of Merrill with treasury funds secured against CDO's, I really will have lost all faith in the market personally.
The over all derivatives market is something like $100 trillion dollars in the US , and granted most of that is never going to see the light of day or be made actual, but can any person honestly understand the effects of four levels of chopped and diced risk? Institutions clearly can't. Our elected representatives surely don't. I don't! Maybe we need some restraints on how imaginary investments can get before they're plain old fraud. 2nd order derivation is about where I lose my ability to follow along, and I'm a fairly smart guy.
So, what it means, as I see it: no more living on credit for Americans as individuals or as a nation. It's going to hurt. I have a feeling that I won't be able to buy a home until I save 20% of the purchase price, like back in the good old days.
Why? Not letting 2001 become a real get-rid-of-the-deadwood recession, but instead injecting insane cash into the system, and letting real estate values build up to soak up the liquidity and prop up the economy, because it had nowhere else to go but overseas. Financial markets were deregulated, allowing investment banks to merge with regular banks, removing firewalls and independence and creating bizarre shadow world markets that are magnitudes larger in notional dollar value then the stock market. For the last 30 years, our economic measuring tools have been made worthless by presidents of both parties, making the situation seem less dire then it actually is, inflating or hiding information to make themselves look good. Also, a half trillion dollar war in Iraq didn't help.
I do not see a soft landing in store for us, and am glad I have another 35 years to be able to save up money to retire at some point.
vincent - 09/16/08 23:24
It's because the people that lived through crap like the depression are either A.) Dead B.) in Dementia Land or C.) Run into younger "know it alls" who listen politely and laugh off whatever they say. So when an MBA our age thinks they know how to maximize risk synergy to extract full profit potential, stuff like this eventually happens. Perfect example, Bashar Issa.
It's because the people that lived through crap like the depression are either A.) Dead B.) in Dementia Land or C.) Run into younger "know it alls" who listen politely and laugh off whatever they say. So when an MBA our age thinks they know how to maximize risk synergy to extract full profit potential, stuff like this eventually happens. Perfect example, Bashar Issa.
joshua - 09/16/08 13:07
(e:jim) - those days were the real wild, wild west of capitalism. Insider trading? Not illegal! Ultimately the SEC was created as a result.
That is absolutely incredible - 25%?!?! They must really, really want to make sure the debt is backed up by something tangible if they are going to be THAT stingy with money.
(e:vincent) - excellent analogy. You are right to mention irresponsible buyers as part of the problem. Really though, the guys on the street should never have backed CDOs with risky debt. They chose to out of greed and nothing more. They thought sub-prime mortgages would never default as they have, which was a gamble that they lost badly. It is incredible who are culpable for the situation we are in - it is such an ugly picture that really you could name any number of parties who had a hand in the collapse.
That is an interesting perspective, to suggest that perhaps the rundown on oil might have been greater if the margin requirement was at its previous rate. That very well may be true, although we'll never know. Personally I'm comfortable with only the well capitalized players in the game. I think mitigation of speculatory increases on futures contracts is the more important issue in the end. If these guys want to make a bet on a commodity integral to the world economy, it damn well should be expensive.
(e:jim) - those days were the real wild, wild west of capitalism. Insider trading? Not illegal! Ultimately the SEC was created as a result.
That is absolutely incredible - 25%?!?! They must really, really want to make sure the debt is backed up by something tangible if they are going to be THAT stingy with money.
(e:vincent) - excellent analogy. You are right to mention irresponsible buyers as part of the problem. Really though, the guys on the street should never have backed CDOs with risky debt. They chose to out of greed and nothing more. They thought sub-prime mortgages would never default as they have, which was a gamble that they lost badly. It is incredible who are culpable for the situation we are in - it is such an ugly picture that really you could name any number of parties who had a hand in the collapse.
That is an interesting perspective, to suggest that perhaps the rundown on oil might have been greater if the margin requirement was at its previous rate. That very well may be true, although we'll never know. Personally I'm comfortable with only the well capitalized players in the game. I think mitigation of speculatory increases on futures contracts is the more important issue in the end. If these guys want to make a bet on a commodity integral to the world economy, it damn well should be expensive.
jim - 09/16/08 10:22
Thanks Vincent, I never made the mental analogy between mortgages and margin accounts in my head, but that is an awesome way to understand the problem. Margin trading of stocks was the big cause of the '29 crash, right? So it's kinda silly we fall into this same financial trap over and over.
Thanks Vincent, I never made the mental analogy between mortgages and margin accounts in my head, but that is an awesome way to understand the problem. Margin trading of stocks was the big cause of the '29 crash, right? So it's kinda silly we fall into this same financial trap over and over.
vincent - 09/16/08 10:05
Yea, the leverage for Oil was pretty powerful a year ago with the Margin requirement being $5000 for 1 contract to control 1,000 barrels of oil. Now it's $15,000 to control the same amount. So the margin was raised and as powerful the move up was, IMHO with the margin requirements being raise it may have slowed down the drop we have seen to $90 a barrel a bit by having only the well capitalized players still in the game.
It's kind of what happened to Real Estate. The boom had a lot to do with the margin requirement for a house being places @ Zero. The principle of a down payment or documents to prove you were capable of receiving a margin account [mortgage] went away in the early 00's. So you can say that the average American could have "screwed" us by taking out loans that they could never pay back to the companies that sold their paper and are behind this bloodbath on Wall St today. IMHO if we would have kept the margin requirements on a house say @ a 25% down payment like they had in the 60's we would have never seen the run up in prices and never would have been in this mess today.
Yea, the leverage for Oil was pretty powerful a year ago with the Margin requirement being $5000 for 1 contract to control 1,000 barrels of oil. Now it's $15,000 to control the same amount. So the margin was raised and as powerful the move up was, IMHO with the margin requirements being raise it may have slowed down the drop we have seen to $90 a barrel a bit by having only the well capitalized players still in the game.
It's kind of what happened to Real Estate. The boom had a lot to do with the margin requirement for a house being places @ Zero. The principle of a down payment or documents to prove you were capable of receiving a margin account [mortgage] went away in the early 00's. So you can say that the average American could have "screwed" us by taking out loans that they could never pay back to the companies that sold their paper and are behind this bloodbath on Wall St today. IMHO if we would have kept the margin requirements on a house say @ a 25% down payment like they had in the 60's we would have never seen the run up in prices and never would have been in this mess today.
jim - 09/16/08 09:55
Yeah, I have a few thousand in debt that I wanted to get a personal loan to pay off. Two years ago when I needed a personal loan for something I got it at 13% interest. This year they were going to charge me 25% interest. And I have good credit! That didn't change between then and now, what did is that money is not circulating like it used to be.
The Fed may be cutting interest rates to prop the system up some more, but I'm against that. We should feel pain and get it over with now, not keep pumping up from a dry well subsidized by the future.
Yeah, I have a few thousand in debt that I wanted to get a personal loan to pay off. Two years ago when I needed a personal loan for something I got it at 13% interest. This year they were going to charge me 25% interest. And I have good credit! That didn't change between then and now, what did is that money is not circulating like it used to be.
The Fed may be cutting interest rates to prop the system up some more, but I'm against that. We should feel pain and get it over with now, not keep pumping up from a dry well subsidized by the future.
joshua - 09/16/08 09:32
Ooh. I was typing fast and I'm glad I just proofread what I wrote. It is Jon Corzine, not Jim Corzine. I subbed your name in for a guy who made $400m on the street... hard to complain!
Ooh. I was typing fast and I'm glad I just proofread what I wrote. It is Jon Corzine, not Jim Corzine. I subbed your name in for a guy who made $400m on the street... hard to complain!
joshua - 09/16/08 09:30
Well said (e:jim). The value of a CDO, as you have said, can be a bit nebulous to calculate. The thing about CDOs is that they have been around for nearly 10 years; it is only relatively recently that they decided it was a good idea for SPVs to issue debt obligations backed by extraordinarily shaky collateral. The reason? Market value CDOs allow asset managers to build up asset under management quicker than with other instruments. Any guesses on how these asset managers get paid? =D With this method active trading is essential. CDOs backed by bonds, etc. are more stable debt obligations and are sounder in nature, but the fees don't quite stack up as high.
The derivatives market is a headache. It isn't all bad, but losses can be as exaggerated as the gains and by far the riskiest asset class is derivatives. I don't think the average person really needs to understand the complexities of the derivatives market. What is obvious is that these derivative markets need more regulation. If it isn't CDOs, then it is oil futures, which is traded at a cheaper premium than other commodities. Why? Speculators took advantage of the rules, had a field day and screwed us.
About borrowing - Lehman tanked while having a AAA bond rating, which is astonishing. I'm sure no execs on Wall St. could have imagined a day where that would happen. What it means for the everyday person who wants to borrow is simple - for the time being it is going to be more difficult to qualify for home loans, even for people with great credit. I've heard whispers of going back to the days of 20% down on home loans - it is certainly possible although I hope it isn't quite that severe. I think the Fed itself isn't entirely sure how this will shake out, particularly with inflationary pressure on the economy added on for extra measure.
They keep using terms like "flushing the system," etc. I suppose that is true, although we aren't just flushing the system of bad debt. We're also flushing the structure of Wall St. and the structure of global investment banking.
I don't think our politicians are suitable enough to come up with a good solution to the problem. The banking system is so integral - if you ask me they should put together a bi-partisan commission stacked with former St. execs and SEC officials to come up with proper regulatory solutions that will solve the problems without killing the capitalist system entirely. I worry that our politicians aren't sophisticated enough to understand what is good or bad for Wall St., and the problem is such a tangled web that we need the best and the brightest, who know what they are doing and understand capital markets. I can think of two guys that would be very good in this case - Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Mass. (formerly head of Bain Capital) and current Gov. Jim Corzine of New Jersey (formerly head of Goldman Sachs).
Well said (e:jim). The value of a CDO, as you have said, can be a bit nebulous to calculate. The thing about CDOs is that they have been around for nearly 10 years; it is only relatively recently that they decided it was a good idea for SPVs to issue debt obligations backed by extraordinarily shaky collateral. The reason? Market value CDOs allow asset managers to build up asset under management quicker than with other instruments. Any guesses on how these asset managers get paid? =D With this method active trading is essential. CDOs backed by bonds, etc. are more stable debt obligations and are sounder in nature, but the fees don't quite stack up as high.
The derivatives market is a headache. It isn't all bad, but losses can be as exaggerated as the gains and by far the riskiest asset class is derivatives. I don't think the average person really needs to understand the complexities of the derivatives market. What is obvious is that these derivative markets need more regulation. If it isn't CDOs, then it is oil futures, which is traded at a cheaper premium than other commodities. Why? Speculators took advantage of the rules, had a field day and screwed us.
About borrowing - Lehman tanked while having a AAA bond rating, which is astonishing. I'm sure no execs on Wall St. could have imagined a day where that would happen. What it means for the everyday person who wants to borrow is simple - for the time being it is going to be more difficult to qualify for home loans, even for people with great credit. I've heard whispers of going back to the days of 20% down on home loans - it is certainly possible although I hope it isn't quite that severe. I think the Fed itself isn't entirely sure how this will shake out, particularly with inflationary pressure on the economy added on for extra measure.
They keep using terms like "flushing the system," etc. I suppose that is true, although we aren't just flushing the system of bad debt. We're also flushing the structure of Wall St. and the structure of global investment banking.
I don't think our politicians are suitable enough to come up with a good solution to the problem. The banking system is so integral - if you ask me they should put together a bi-partisan commission stacked with former St. execs and SEC officials to come up with proper regulatory solutions that will solve the problems without killing the capitalist system entirely. I worry that our politicians aren't sophisticated enough to understand what is good or bad for Wall St., and the problem is such a tangled web that we need the best and the brightest, who know what they are doing and understand capital markets. I can think of two guys that would be very good in this case - Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Mass. (formerly head of Bain Capital) and current Gov. Jim Corzine of New Jersey (formerly head of Goldman Sachs).
i have a feeling that running Christmas lights for 3 months isn't going to be in the budget of many homeowners this year. Does that disappoint me? maayyybe not...
I just saw some at Lowes.
ugh, I just threw up a little.