I guess what's good for Wall St isn't good for Main St
This is why you need Shorts in any market. Look what happens when they are forced to cover their positions.
Vincent's Journal
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09/22/2008 23:16 #45766
Crap, Oil's up againCategory: finance
So enjoy filling up under $4 a gallon. That isn't going to last for too long...
I guess what's good for Wall St isn't good for Main St
This is why you need Shorts in any market. Look what happens when they are forced to cover their positions.
I guess what's good for Wall St isn't good for Main St
This is why you need Shorts in any market. Look what happens when they are forced to cover their positions.
09/19/2008 20:50 #45734
Set adrift on memory blissCategory: music
Yea, I was listening to Virgin Radio today from Toronto on my drive into work this morning. For the most part I was just daydreaming, then thing song came on
Yea, Reality used to be a friend of mine...I love that line along with a few others in this psychedelic/trip hop song or whatever category it is.
The funny part is I do have this really self defeating sense of empathy for attractive "old maids." I actually cried one year when there was this really attractive news reporter that did her "Happy Holiday's" commercial appearance with just a stuffed reindeer. This while all of the old anchors had their wife and 3 kids waiving and baking cookies. For some reason it really bothered me and I shouldn't be because I have my own problems in being alone in this world. The thing that struck me was this song in how he mentions Christina Applegate. It got me to think about her being in her late 30's with no husband or kids. It kind of is a tragedy that she hasn't passed on her gene's yet, especially with her battle with breast cancer. Yea I would like the be the one to procreate with her of course ;-) but still a part of me feels bad that she hasn't done so already with anyone. But logically it is just fucked for me to think about such things because I have my own lack of relationship problems.
Yea, Reality used to be a friend of mine...I love that line along with a few others in this psychedelic/trip hop song or whatever category it is.
The funny part is I do have this really self defeating sense of empathy for attractive "old maids." I actually cried one year when there was this really attractive news reporter that did her "Happy Holiday's" commercial appearance with just a stuffed reindeer. This while all of the old anchors had their wife and 3 kids waiving and baking cookies. For some reason it really bothered me and I shouldn't be because I have my own problems in being alone in this world. The thing that struck me was this song in how he mentions Christina Applegate. It got me to think about her being in her late 30's with no husband or kids. It kind of is a tragedy that she hasn't passed on her gene's yet, especially with her battle with breast cancer. Yea I would like the be the one to procreate with her of course ;-) but still a part of me feels bad that she hasn't done so already with anyone. But logically it is just fucked for me to think about such things because I have my own lack of relationship problems.
imk2 - 09/20/08 07:50
tiny, she does have the BRCA gene, don't know if it's 1 or 2. that's why she chose to have a prophylactic mastectomy.
tiny, she does have the BRCA gene, don't know if it's 1 or 2. that's why she chose to have a prophylactic mastectomy.
tinypliny - 09/19/08 21:00
It is kind of interesting that you say that she hasn't passed on her genes yet. It made me think of the BRCA1/2 gene mutations that she probably has (these mutations are hereditary and are responsible for around 15 - 25% of breast cancer). I surely wish that no child of her's get those gene-mutations if ever she did decide to pass them on. Morbid. I know. But that's all I think about nowadays. I have become very breast-centric. So much so that even when I am skimming research from other field totally unrelated to cancer, I am thinking of what impact it could possibly have on breast cancer epidemiology. I think I might be going slightly off the rocker. :/
It is kind of interesting that you say that she hasn't passed on her genes yet. It made me think of the BRCA1/2 gene mutations that she probably has (these mutations are hereditary and are responsible for around 15 - 25% of breast cancer). I surely wish that no child of her's get those gene-mutations if ever she did decide to pass them on. Morbid. I know. But that's all I think about nowadays. I have become very breast-centric. So much so that even when I am skimming research from other field totally unrelated to cancer, I am thinking of what impact it could possibly have on breast cancer epidemiology. I think I might be going slightly off the rocker. :/
09/18/2008 22:29 #45728
bloodbath? What bloodbath?Category: finance
Well this is going to be my last post on this topic for a while. This bear is going to hibernate for about a month or so until the end of the election. I figure that I'll come out in 2 months just like the bear on Wall st did after the rally in mid-July and some of August. So after the excitement ends we are just going to stagger sideways for a while just like we did in the summer.
The kicker is that the government is going to ban short selling outright. Is it going to work for the short term? Yes, it sure will. I'm just counting on it making it worse when the real stuff happens a month or two from now. I have my small bets and my plan all set. All I can lose is the amount of money that I placed in the pot when I bought my options. All I can do now is just sit and wait until the hoopla ends, most likely after the election in November.
The only could have would have should have thing that is knawing at me is not being in gold. I had always owned a gold stock for the last 9 years or so and when the gold and silver market tanked in July and I took my profits and ran I never got back in. The whole "catching a falling knife" adage was just something that I wanted to avoid. Now what do I do? Do I get back in and chase a parabolic move up and run the risk of losing money when things come crashing back down to earth?
I have enough money working in a contarian kind of way. It is going to be touch to watch the market with my "downside" play for the next month or so. It's just that all I can lose is what I put down and nothing more. The key is not over leveraging yourself like a Wall St firm. Because I know that the taxpayer is not going to bail me out ;-)
Anyways this should be very interesting to say the least! I'll have to remember where this post is at the end of the year...
The kicker is that the government is going to ban short selling outright. Is it going to work for the short term? Yes, it sure will. I'm just counting on it making it worse when the real stuff happens a month or two from now. I have my small bets and my plan all set. All I can lose is the amount of money that I placed in the pot when I bought my options. All I can do now is just sit and wait until the hoopla ends, most likely after the election in November.
The only could have would have should have thing that is knawing at me is not being in gold. I had always owned a gold stock for the last 9 years or so and when the gold and silver market tanked in July and I took my profits and ran I never got back in. The whole "catching a falling knife" adage was just something that I wanted to avoid. Now what do I do? Do I get back in and chase a parabolic move up and run the risk of losing money when things come crashing back down to earth?
I have enough money working in a contarian kind of way. It is going to be touch to watch the market with my "downside" play for the next month or so. It's just that all I can lose is what I put down and nothing more. The key is not over leveraging yourself like a Wall St firm. Because I know that the taxpayer is not going to bail me out ;-)
Anyways this should be very interesting to say the least! I'll have to remember where this post is at the end of the year...
paul - 09/19/08 14:01
You are truly a gambler at heart ;) I wish that I got into gold, not just because of the money but because I freakin' love it. Terry and Matt think that its italian tacky but I would have gold everything if I was rich.
You are truly a gambler at heart ;) I wish that I got into gold, not just because of the money but because I freakin' love it. Terry and Matt think that its italian tacky but I would have gold everything if I was rich.
09/18/2008 00:07 #45716
The bloodbath continuesCategory: finance
OK I re-entered my short position or actually doubled it this morning as I walked out the door to work. I saw that the S&P was below a key support/resistance level of 1200 & decided to take a shot. Yea I was surprised to see that at the end of the day the whole thing still tanking hard. I guess it's due to the margin calls & people dumping their mutual funds/401k's as they usually book the transaction @ the close of business.
So the Treasury is going to ban naked short selling across the board. I must admit it is kind of shady practice, but was legal until today. It does violate the principle of a buyer/seller as the actual transaction was never fully consummated as the shares were never actually delivered since they never were actually sold. All I can say is in the case of a P.O.S. company like Lehman or Indymac it wasn't too evil since the actual underlying company was worth 0 in the end. If the companies were actually worth something, wouldn't there be a bidder???
All I can say is that the govenrment or whoever is going to have to really pull the stops soon to keep people from making runs on the bank if this crap continues to hemorrhage. Gold shot up $90 bucks in a day, an all time record! The Yield on a 90 day U.S. Government Treasury Bill is 0.04% !!!! That's right the lowest level since WW2
What really scares me is that those "safe" money market funds losing money when they were designed to never drop under the initial $1 investment.
Seriously if you are getting less than a penny for T-Bills & the MONEY MARKET FUND IS LOSING MONEY, the mattress isn't looking that bad to be honest. What's the point of having your money in the bank if you earn negligible interest? Plus who knows if there is enough money in the FDIC to cover many banks going under at the same time? I know Indymac took a big chunk out of the FDIC reserve fund. Just think how many trillions of dollars that are in bank accounts across this country?
It's just too bad that we don't have a respectable casino in Western New York that that could be trusted with a Front Money Deposit. To be honest if shit really hit the fan I would actually do that over a bank. It wouldn't mean that I would go there and gamble it, but all I would be doing is putting it in the casino cage for safekeeping, just like a bank account/safety deposit box. Believe me when I worked there there were people that would actually do this. They would deposit say $10,000 to the casino cage and leave it there until they would stop by to make a withdrawal and possible gamble. The funny part half of the time they wouldn't gamble. It's safer than your mattress or your floorboards and they are legally responsible for it. Maybe I should look into making a deposit @ that racino down in Erie, PA?
BTW if anyone is interested my favorite Radiohead Cover Band, The Karma Police are playing Mr. Goodbar Friday night @ 11PM
So the Treasury is going to ban naked short selling across the board. I must admit it is kind of shady practice, but was legal until today. It does violate the principle of a buyer/seller as the actual transaction was never fully consummated as the shares were never actually delivered since they never were actually sold. All I can say is in the case of a P.O.S. company like Lehman or Indymac it wasn't too evil since the actual underlying company was worth 0 in the end. If the companies were actually worth something, wouldn't there be a bidder???
All I can say is that the govenrment or whoever is going to have to really pull the stops soon to keep people from making runs on the bank if this crap continues to hemorrhage. Gold shot up $90 bucks in a day, an all time record! The Yield on a 90 day U.S. Government Treasury Bill is 0.04% !!!! That's right the lowest level since WW2
What really scares me is that those "safe" money market funds losing money when they were designed to never drop under the initial $1 investment.
Seriously if you are getting less than a penny for T-Bills & the MONEY MARKET FUND IS LOSING MONEY, the mattress isn't looking that bad to be honest. What's the point of having your money in the bank if you earn negligible interest? Plus who knows if there is enough money in the FDIC to cover many banks going under at the same time? I know Indymac took a big chunk out of the FDIC reserve fund. Just think how many trillions of dollars that are in bank accounts across this country?
It's just too bad that we don't have a respectable casino in Western New York that that could be trusted with a Front Money Deposit. To be honest if shit really hit the fan I would actually do that over a bank. It wouldn't mean that I would go there and gamble it, but all I would be doing is putting it in the casino cage for safekeeping, just like a bank account/safety deposit box. Believe me when I worked there there were people that would actually do this. They would deposit say $10,000 to the casino cage and leave it there until they would stop by to make a withdrawal and possible gamble. The funny part half of the time they wouldn't gamble. It's safer than your mattress or your floorboards and they are legally responsible for it. Maybe I should look into making a deposit @ that racino down in Erie, PA?
BTW if anyone is interested my favorite Radiohead Cover Band, The Karma Police are playing Mr. Goodbar Friday night @ 11PM
vincent - 09/19/08 00:01
Yea, they did but they still are responsible for money deposited in their cage.
Eventually there is going to be a trigger for a bank run sometime by the end of this year. I don't know when or what will bring it on, but I just sense it. What banks I don't know, I would say Washington Mutual would be the next domino to fall if I was going to take a stab at it.
Yea, they did but they still are responsible for money deposited in their cage.
Eventually there is going to be a trigger for a bank run sometime by the end of this year. I don't know when or what will bring it on, but I just sense it. What banks I don't know, I would say Washington Mutual would be the next domino to fall if I was going to take a stab at it.
tinypliny - 09/18/08 21:39
Hey, didn't the Ocean's (whatever-the-number-is-now) rob casinos?
Also, do you think HSBC and Bank of America might go the Indymac way as well?
Hey, didn't the Ocean's (whatever-the-number-is-now) rob casinos?
Also, do you think HSBC and Bank of America might go the Indymac way as well?
tinypliny - 09/18/08 21:35
The financial decisions people make, stump me. They keep on borrowing on credit and yet go and blow REAL hard money on casinos. Hello? Why would you need to borrow so much if you don't blow them on casinos? Incomprehensible.
The financial decisions people make, stump me. They keep on borrowing on credit and yet go and blow REAL hard money on casinos. Hello? Why would you need to borrow so much if you don't blow them on casinos? Incomprehensible.
joshua - 09/18/08 11:38
Seneca Nation Casino Savings & Loan, PLC
Seneca Nation Casino Savings & Loan, PLC
joshua - 09/18/08 11:38
If/when people start withdrawing more and more out of mutual funds and 401k, that will be an extraordinary development and I wonder what will happen if that bottoms out as well. Obviously nothing good. In a lot of ways we are charting new economic territory, particularly with the credit problem locking up banks of all stripes. Nobody really knows what to do or what the outcome may be, so at this point when I hear people discuss it on NPR or any financial news station I take what I hear with a HUGE grain of salt.
The Fed had circa. $800b in reserve prior to all this. Now their reserve is dwindling. At this pace the Fed will run out of cash... that is a scary thought. At least with AIG the plan is to bring the company down in a controlled manner.
Stimulating trust in the credit market is going to make or break us. I admit, your potential casino solution is something I've never considered. Then again, I don't frequent casinos!
If/when people start withdrawing more and more out of mutual funds and 401k, that will be an extraordinary development and I wonder what will happen if that bottoms out as well. Obviously nothing good. In a lot of ways we are charting new economic territory, particularly with the credit problem locking up banks of all stripes. Nobody really knows what to do or what the outcome may be, so at this point when I hear people discuss it on NPR or any financial news station I take what I hear with a HUGE grain of salt.
The Fed had circa. $800b in reserve prior to all this. Now their reserve is dwindling. At this pace the Fed will run out of cash... that is a scary thought. At least with AIG the plan is to bring the company down in a controlled manner.
Stimulating trust in the credit market is going to make or break us. I admit, your potential casino solution is something I've never considered. Then again, I don't frequent casinos!
09/16/2008 23:13 #45702
Response to e:drew from my last postCategory: finance
Another too long for a comment post :-D
I understand where you are coming from and why you follow and stick to your plan. We really don't know long term if being socially responsible vs the regular sin stocks is better or worse for returns. I do remember at the time when those funds had to dump Starbucks due to them entering the liquor market, they most likey saved themselves some money about 2-3 years ago as the stock has been on a constant slide since then.
As I had my position closed out today when the market rallied on the AIG Bailout by (each and every one of us) today I just though that I wasn't cheering for the overall economy to go in the tank, I was just taking advantage over information of a prior fact about Lehman Brothers.
For me it is a case of it being neither good or bad, but thinking making it so. I can't stop the greed that put those wall st firms in that position in the first place. I can't save those people walking out on the street with their cardboard boxes, (Heck they most likely live a better more exciting life than I do in the City.) As Mark Twain said once, "Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it." It's just a case of me not wanting to jump over Niagara Falls because everyone else is going so, and doing something against the crowd.
People that sell short or buy ETF's that do can lose money. If I sell a stock short like Apple @ 100 and it goes up to $153 I am out $53. It's a market, a buyer and a seller. Does anyone feel sorry for the guy that sold the stock at $100 and kick himself for selling too early as it went up to $153???
In the markets for every $ that is made, one is lost. That used to be how Capitalism worked until we became a collective and nationalized everything like AIG being the latest example.
I'm not a fan of AM Radio but I did hear a guy mention this article today. Basically it states that there is no free lunch, life is a zero sum game and eventually this country will be out of money due to the promises that are being made with no one to pay for them. I don't agree with it all, but it does make some interesting points.
My dream to own a scooter gets more and more responsible sounding every day. Sweet.
Its actually so cheap here, it makes me blink in disbelief when people freak out over the price. Its almost triple the new amount back home. It has been super-expensive for a VERY long decade now.