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Vincent's Journal

vincent
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09/25/2008 23:15 #45796

Political Games & WaMu R.I.P.
Category: finance
I just love it when the political and financial worlds collide. The sad part is all of this has become a game or many at once.

So in the last 24 hours we have a game of chicken in regards to the debates. Are they going to go down to Ole Miss and debate tomorrow? Will the just say screw it and have something on the spot right in D.C., i mean why bother hopping on a private jet at that point? The logistics would be pretty brutal for either candidate. This has almost gotten to the point of reminding me of "wrasslin" back in the day when it was descent, during the Monday night wars. When the seed of doubt would be planted if such and a such wrestler would show up on Nitro/Raw. Some sick part of me can see John McCain busting in on Obama's 1 hour free commercial right @ :49 past the hour. You know the whole, shot of the limo on the jumbotron and then suddenly an emergence from the crowd. It's is just so mind boggling to think of the different angles being played in regards to posturing for the presidential election, along with the party values of the extreme wings. Just flipping on cable news you seen Barney Frank giving one update and Richard Shelby giving another on another channel. How could you even being to think that Bush would let either McCain or Obama get in the mix of this insanity and take away any credit in helping with this "Bi-Partisan" effort.

Plus just when you think things get worse, we play "Deal or No Deal" with the whole Wall St Bail Out thing. We then have a middle of the night, bank failure with Washington Mutual going under. So it now becomes the "biggest bank failure", hey wait a minute wasn't Indymac the "biggest bank failure?"

I just though that I couldn't talk about this crap anymore until after the election, but it keeps getting more insane by the day.
jason - 09/29/08 12:50
The craziest part of this mess is that the foxes are watching over the hen house!! Unreal!!

09/22/2008 23:16 #45766

Crap, Oil's up again
Category: finance
So enjoy filling up under $4 a gallon. That isn't going to last for too long...

I guess what's good for Wall St isn't good for Main St

This is why you need Shorts in any market. Look what happens when they are forced to cover their positions.
heidi - 09/23/08 19:26
  • blink* of course what's good for wall street isn't good for main street... the goals and needs of those populations are rather incompatible. Main Street looks out for the long term.
morgan - 09/23/08 16:24
My dream to own a scooter gets more and more responsible sounding every day. Sweet.
tinypliny - 09/23/08 16:22
Its actually so cheap here, it makes me blink in disbelief when people freak out over the price. Its almost triple the new amount back home. It has been super-expensive for a VERY long decade now.

09/19/2008 20:50 #45734

Set adrift on memory bliss
Category: music
Yea, I was listening to Virgin Radio today from Toronto on my drive into work this morning. For the most part I was just daydreaming, then thing song came on




Yea, Reality used to be a friend of mine...I love that line along with a few others in this psychedelic/trip hop song or whatever category it is.


The funny part is I do have this really self defeating sense of empathy for attractive "old maids." I actually cried one year when there was this really attractive news reporter that did her "Happy Holiday's" commercial appearance with just a stuffed reindeer. This while all of the old anchors had their wife and 3 kids waiving and baking cookies. For some reason it really bothered me and I shouldn't be because I have my own problems in being alone in this world. The thing that struck me was this song in how he mentions Christina Applegate. It got me to think about her being in her late 30's with no husband or kids. It kind of is a tragedy that she hasn't passed on her gene's yet, especially with her battle with breast cancer. Yea I would like the be the one to procreate with her of course ;-) but still a part of me feels bad that she hasn't done so already with anyone. But logically it is just fucked for me to think about such things because I have my own lack of relationship problems.
imk2 - 09/20/08 07:50
tiny, she does have the BRCA gene, don't know if it's 1 or 2. that's why she chose to have a prophylactic mastectomy.
tinypliny - 09/19/08 21:00
It is kind of interesting that you say that she hasn't passed on her genes yet. It made me think of the BRCA1/2 gene mutations that she probably has (these mutations are hereditary and are responsible for around 15 - 25% of breast cancer). I surely wish that no child of her's get those gene-mutations if ever she did decide to pass them on. Morbid. I know. But that's all I think about nowadays. I have become very breast-centric. So much so that even when I am skimming research from other field totally unrelated to cancer, I am thinking of what impact it could possibly have on breast cancer epidemiology. I think I might be going slightly off the rocker. :/

09/18/2008 22:29 #45728

bloodbath? What bloodbath?
Category: finance
Well this is going to be my last post on this topic for a while. This bear is going to hibernate for about a month or so until the end of the election. I figure that I'll come out in 2 months just like the bear on Wall st did after the rally in mid-July and some of August. So after the excitement ends we are just going to stagger sideways for a while just like we did in the summer.

The kicker is that the government is going to ban short selling outright. Is it going to work for the short term? Yes, it sure will. I'm just counting on it making it worse when the real stuff happens a month or two from now. I have my small bets and my plan all set. All I can lose is the amount of money that I placed in the pot when I bought my options. All I can do now is just sit and wait until the hoopla ends, most likely after the election in November.

The only could have would have should have thing that is knawing at me is not being in gold. I had always owned a gold stock for the last 9 years or so and when the gold and silver market tanked in July and I took my profits and ran I never got back in. The whole "catching a falling knife" adage was just something that I wanted to avoid. Now what do I do? Do I get back in and chase a parabolic move up and run the risk of losing money when things come crashing back down to earth?

I have enough money working in a contarian kind of way. It is going to be touch to watch the market with my "downside" play for the next month or so. It's just that all I can lose is what I put down and nothing more. The key is not over leveraging yourself like a Wall St firm. Because I know that the taxpayer is not going to bail me out ;-)

Anyways this should be very interesting to say the least! I'll have to remember where this post is at the end of the year...
paul - 09/19/08 14:01
You are truly a gambler at heart ;) I wish that I got into gold, not just because of the money but because I freakin' love it. Terry and Matt think that its italian tacky but I would have gold everything if I was rich.

09/18/2008 00:07 #45716

The bloodbath continues
Category: finance
OK I re-entered my short position or actually doubled it this morning as I walked out the door to work. I saw that the S&P was below a key support/resistance level of 1200 & decided to take a shot. Yea I was surprised to see that at the end of the day the whole thing still tanking hard. I guess it's due to the margin calls & people dumping their mutual funds/401k's as they usually book the transaction @ the close of business.

So the Treasury is going to ban naked short selling across the board. I must admit it is kind of shady practice, but was legal until today. It does violate the principle of a buyer/seller as the actual transaction was never fully consummated as the shares were never actually delivered since they never were actually sold. All I can say is in the case of a P.O.S. company like Lehman or Indymac it wasn't too evil since the actual underlying company was worth 0 in the end. If the companies were actually worth something, wouldn't there be a bidder???

All I can say is that the govenrment or whoever is going to have to really pull the stops soon to keep people from making runs on the bank if this crap continues to hemorrhage. Gold shot up $90 bucks in a day, an all time record! The Yield on a 90 day U.S. Government Treasury Bill is 0.04% !!!! That's right the lowest level since WW2

What really scares me is that those "safe" money market funds losing money when they were designed to never drop under the initial $1 investment.

Seriously if you are getting less than a penny for T-Bills & the MONEY MARKET FUND IS LOSING MONEY, the mattress isn't looking that bad to be honest. What's the point of having your money in the bank if you earn negligible interest? Plus who knows if there is enough money in the FDIC to cover many banks going under at the same time? I know Indymac took a big chunk out of the FDIC reserve fund. Just think how many trillions of dollars that are in bank accounts across this country?

It's just too bad that we don't have a respectable casino in Western New York that that could be trusted with a Front Money Deposit. To be honest if shit really hit the fan I would actually do that over a bank. It wouldn't mean that I would go there and gamble it, but all I would be doing is putting it in the casino cage for safekeeping, just like a bank account/safety deposit box. Believe me when I worked there there were people that would actually do this. They would deposit say $10,000 to the casino cage and leave it there until they would stop by to make a withdrawal and possible gamble. The funny part half of the time they wouldn't gamble. It's safer than your mattress or your floorboards and they are legally responsible for it. Maybe I should look into making a deposit @ that racino down in Erie, PA?


BTW if anyone is interested my favorite Radiohead Cover Band, The Karma Police are playing Mr. Goodbar Friday night @ 11PM
vincent - 09/19/08 00:01
Yea, they did but they still are responsible for money deposited in their cage.

Eventually there is going to be a trigger for a bank run sometime by the end of this year. I don't know when or what will bring it on, but I just sense it. What banks I don't know, I would say Washington Mutual would be the next domino to fall if I was going to take a stab at it.
tinypliny - 09/18/08 21:39
Hey, didn't the Ocean's (whatever-the-number-is-now) rob casinos?

Also, do you think HSBC and Bank of America might go the Indymac way as well?
tinypliny - 09/18/08 21:35
The financial decisions people make, stump me. They keep on borrowing on credit and yet go and blow REAL hard money on casinos. Hello? Why would you need to borrow so much if you don't blow them on casinos? Incomprehensible.
joshua - 09/18/08 11:38
Seneca Nation Casino Savings & Loan, PLC
joshua - 09/18/08 11:38
If/when people start withdrawing more and more out of mutual funds and 401k, that will be an extraordinary development and I wonder what will happen if that bottoms out as well. Obviously nothing good. In a lot of ways we are charting new economic territory, particularly with the credit problem locking up banks of all stripes. Nobody really knows what to do or what the outcome may be, so at this point when I hear people discuss it on NPR or any financial news station I take what I hear with a HUGE grain of salt.

The Fed had circa. $800b in reserve prior to all this. Now their reserve is dwindling. At this pace the Fed will run out of cash... that is a scary thought. At least with AIG the plan is to bring the company down in a controlled manner.

Stimulating trust in the credit market is going to make or break us. I admit, your potential casino solution is something I've never considered. Then again, I don't frequent casinos!