I am not a Hillary hater. She isn't my candidate of choice but I still like her well enough. But she is having a rough, rough day.
Between thursday and tomorrow she has gone from the inevitable candidate to barely alive. Obama leads her by double digit numbers in New Hampshire (tomorrow's primary) and South Carolina (the next big, important show). This means he has gone from distant second place to the clear front runner in four days. Let me say that again in a new paragraph for full emphasis.
In four days Hillary has gone from the Democratic candidate for a presidential election she was sure to win to a hail mary strategy to win a few unimportant primary states.
You have to feel some compassion for her. It is different from Mitt Romney who is an empty suit that tried to buy the election. Hillary was a genuinely good candidate with a very good chance at winning.
Today she choked up with tears when a woman asked her how she stays so upbeat.
Then we had her husband Bill, doing his best borscht belt comic impression, say "I can't make younger, taller, male. There are a lot of things I can't do. But if you want a president and need one she would be by far the best". Is that the best you could do Bill?
But the worst thing to happen to her campaign happened today. She played the race card in the worst way in the history of the game. Here is what she said
Dr. King's dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act. It took a president to get it done."
So, she likens Obama to Martin Luther King, Jr. and her to Lyndon Johnson. She says MLK's contributions to American civil rights were less than President Johnson's. She likens her self to a one term president with a mixed legacy. Who is running her campaign and why are they still working for her? That is not how the race card works. You do not liken your opponent to one of the most beloved and respected of Americans and then try to say you are better than them. That is setting the bar absurdly high.
Well, at least she has her Senate seat.
It became everybody's message because it worked. Now we have politicians arguing about who is more an agent of change. If I didn't know better I would ask what the fuck gives.
I'm actually stunned by the fact that Obama managed to trump Hillary with the black vote in Iowa. The Clintons have taken the black vote for granted pretty much forever so I suppose she was ripe for the picking, but nevertheless the early indications were that Barack wasn't "black enough" for a lot of people. I think SC will be intriguing and if the vote is now swaying like you say it is Hillary's swan song may be the day of the SC primary.
As for Edwards - he's done. He is merely picking over Hillary's corpse at the moment.
As for "change," while what you say at the moment is true (its a buzzword driving the Dems at the moment) the election will eventually focus on substantive issues which I guarantee will have to have some sort of definition if Obama or anyone else expects to get elected. This was the ABB crowd's downfall in 2004. To your point though, in 2004 when President Bush was re-elected, many voters suggested that likeability and "moral values" were integral to who they chose. Barack Obama will not be able to rely solely on spouting rhetoric about change all the way to the White House. Eventually he will have to answer questions he doesn't have good answers for and somewhere Hillary Clinton will be cackling... because that is who she is. Now will people stop arguing with me about that? =D
Josh: Obama won more black votes than Clinton did in Iowa. The Clinton's were very good to black Americans in their administration and Obama did not seem very electable at first. But now the black vote is swinging to him at a very fast rate. New polls in SC, where blacks make up nearly half the population, Obama has gone to a commanding lead in the polls.
It is horribly the way democrats are treating other democrats, but that is the name of the game. Clinton is suddenly Bush-lite. Obama is a swaddled babe who doesn't know NAFTA from NAMBLA. And Edwards... well, Edwards has always been a greasy pretty-boy trial lawyer whose working class appeal is anchored only in his miner father, and not his multi-million dollar home and hundred dollar hair cuts.
And the hope and change rhetoric. This election is not about policy, it is about change. Hillary is running like Al Gore did against Bush. There is a sense of entitlement, a sense that her being right should overwhelm Obama's message. Looking down at Bush didn't get Al elected and it wont get Hillary elected either. Notice how after Iowa everyone's message became Obama's messege?
Hilary get more support from blacks who are registered to vote, they are hardcore democrats and have voting patterns similar to democrats of other ethnicity. The ones that aren't registered are an unknown quantity in terms of voting behavior which is why he will be appealing to them.
He has pretty much the same stance as the rest of the candidates only he is fresh and wildly charismatic so he is using that to get through the primaries, it will be at this point that he reveals his 'not much different but change where change is due approach' and he will debate the Republicans...be patient....
I don't see the problem in playing to cult to win, after all, at some point he will potentially have to show his leadership and if he fucks ups terribly they will kick him out of office...electoral elasticity is a great democratic invention
Hillary gets more support from blacks than Sen. Obama does, which is mystifying to me. As to Obama's electability, I think that voters should not confuse response to a cult of personality with electability. Right now Barack Obama is saying fairly little, and while I loathe to admit to Hillary being right about anything, she is right about the fact that Barack Obama won't survive without answering tough questions. "Voting for change" is nothing but sloganeering and I'm not really amused with it. I think Barack Obama is faaaarrrr too green to be President of the United States - by far the least qualified of the candidates. He's an inspiring speaker and has a great story to tell, but I'm not interested in the BS - I want to hear him debate Republicans (or even Democrats...) on issues like immigration, GWOT, healthcare, the economy and the like. If I'm wrong about my assertion that being POTUS is too far above Barack Obama's head he just may earn my vote, but I'm not interested in the melodramatic references to "hope" and "change" right now. I like the fact that Obama is optimistic but I need more substance from him.
To be honest the most amusing thing to me thus far is listening to Obama supporters treat Hillary Clinton... well... the same way the GOP has for 15 years. I've never seen so many lefties accuse her of being dishonest, untrustworthy, bitchy, self-serving and nakedly ambitious before.
I'm not really inspired by any of the GOP candidates and have a feeling that I probably won't be, but right now I'm never been more open to a third party candidate.
no, there was a group started to try and get him to run but I think Al is quite right in thinking, "I've won an Oscar, an Emmy a noble peace prize, and been the Vice President of the United States... so I could carry on being adored or run for President and be vilified if it all goes to shit"...plus, the pay is shit!
yeah, my parents are pretty big-time republicans, so I was surprised when mom said she likes obama. but I think even they are admitting that things need to change. But she hates hates hates hillary. She kinda likes McCain. Kinda, not really, sorta maybe. But admits that huckabee and romney are so wack that she might have to cross party lines. GASP!
p.s. I know I live under a rock and I don't know as much as I should about politics and current affairs. But is Al Gore even in the picture at all?! I didn't think he was.... but lately I've been seeing all these pro-Gore bumper stickers.
Obama is very electable. He performs better in polls against every other GOP candidate in the field. HIlly on the other hand gets her ass handed to her by McCain and is really, really close in numbers with Mike "I seriously have nothing going for me except I hate gays, abortions, and Darwin" Huckabee.
On national polls Obama just tied Hillary who has consistently been 20 points ahead of him. This is frickin exciting, exciting stuff.
people are right to think that he is unelectable based on polling in every presidential election since FDR, however, the complacency is misplaced because no one candidate has ever mobilized African Americans and the young in a way that he looks capable of doing (run to the base, mobilize the undecideds...it's almost impossible). Given that the young and African Americans famously don't tend to vote and we have seen both groups engaged in caucasses and primaries which they even more famously turn a blind eye to combined with the help of what I am sure will be an enormous ground swelling registration push amongst these groups by the DNC if he wins the nomination you are potentially adding another twenty per cent (pissed off) electorate who will swing Blue. Also, Obama is a Conservative Democrat, sure he is socially more to the left but I am certain there will be massive emphasis on his Senate voting record to sure up the moderate and slightly off center voters. I am so fricking excited I can barely waits The only problem is John BS 'I'm a maverick..please don't look at my Conservative voting record' McCain but the people won;t be fooled again...will they?
yeah, my mom just told me "i like obama... but I doubt he's electable"
I told her he's way more electable than she realizes, I think.
I like Hillary but unfortunately she is finding out that America is more sexist than it is racist. They want a strong, decisive and clinical president but when she acts that way they call her a bitch...they want to see compassion but when she shows it she is accused of being weak and overemotional. Also, she gets mad too easily in the debates and has a tendency to shout back at people like she cannot quite fathom how they had the impunity to question her at all. A sense of entitlement and extremely good qualifications do not a president make I'm afraid and the bandwagon plus cohort effect that Obama seems to be establishing has enormous potential to derail her. I would be beyond excited at the prospect of an Obama/Huckabee race (not that it will happen) but, with the rest of the world watching, The US people would be forced to choose between a well spoken, intelligent African American and an evangelical nut job...people who have never voted would be mobilized on both sides and the results would be an unpredictable clash of the two basic ideologies that shape this nation....like lord of the rings or star wars, good Vs evil, never fails to be a box office smash...I can but dream.