We saw it happen in September of '07 To be honest I hope people wake up & yank their money out of troubled banks & bring them to their knees. Savers have been practically shit on for the last 30 years. Just ask anyone that for whatever stupid reason, "believed in the system" & had more than $100,000 in Indymac Bank. They may have kept their money safe for the last 10 years, avoided the .com bubble in March '00, never got sucked into low interest, no documentation loan orgy over the last 5 years and now are going to get a haircut on their accounts over 100 K, basically 50 cents on the $.
The only way someone got even that is a saver with Indymac is to have loaded up on those 4.3% CD rates that they were offering. F**K, Fed Funds currently is 2% and that's the rate institutions borrow money. It really was a huge moral hazard, Let's offer rates DOUBLE the market rate to get enough Capital to keep going & if shit blows up in our face, THE TAXPAYERS OF THE USA WILL HOLD THE BAG!!!! Pretty smart, although a bit morally shady.
In a way we are all going to be holding the bag for the whole mess we are going to go through in regards to the Socialism for the Rich. There was no fear in making any loan to anyone with a pulse. While at the same time the whole thought of being prudent and conservative just went by the wayside. With what 70% home ownership in this country and with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac passing the joint around of the homeownership fetish in this country there was just too much froth for the whole thing. You look at the subsidies for Freddie and Fannie, The tax breaks for home ownership and the low interest rates below inflation for so long, people just had a no fear of anything. Just borrow, borrow and borrow like this tool;
Do you really need $200 Jeans and BMW? We just can't have home ownership for home ownership sake to perpetuate the "American Dream" and keep prices rising year after year while having solvent institutions that have reserve capital to back up what they are lending. At some point you have to say, "Dude you're horrible with your money and you don't have anything to put Down on this purchase to offset this institution's risk, FLAT OUT NO!" The mission for Fannie & Freddie was at best schizophrenic. You can't make owning for everyone at all costs fit into the framework of being prudent, solvent and responsible for your balance sheet, it just doesn't happen, we can't all be winners.We are all going to be homeowners as the U.S. Government is going to end up buying Fannie & Freddie. So I guess it makes the Government your benefactor landlord. So is this mess what the ownership society was all about? So instead of one big apartment bloc of flats owned and operated by the government as they did in the Eastern Bloc, we are going to have Uncle Sam own our Patio Home Condo's? Then again that's another thing with the people the invested in Freddie & Fannie, the GSE's that provided a nice stream of income, your shareholder equity at the end of this, ZERO. Do you think that in say 10 years if the "investment" for these Government Sponsored Enterprises pans out that they will return the gain to the taxpayers in the form of tax cuts?
At the end of the day we have to realize that Capitalism is a ZERO SUM GAME. You can't have success without failure. We compete every day for Jobs, Mates and parking spaces. This whole, let's help everyone out and bail them out is just plain bullshit. At the end of the day we are all going to fit the bill. If they tighten in the Easy money, people won't to be able to buy those McMansion's due to no institution willing to lend them money. How many people can lay down $40,000 Cold Hard Cash for a $400,000 house? They used to do it 30 + years ago & the payment could only be as high as 25% of your NET Income, since they wanted to make sure you could may your Bill every month.
We can either have responsible lending or easy money to let Real Estate prices keep their upward trajectory forever. You do that by making it affordable for people with the money they have, or give people more money to spend. The second option has been the policy for the country for the last 20 years and obviously that hasn't worked.
What I figure they are going to do since there is just took much at stake to let the economy inflate to Wilhelm Republic levels. All of us are going to be on the hook for bailing out all of the wreckless financial institutions. It's kind of like living in a Dorm and some drunken frat boys trashed the bathrooms. Well no one is going to fess up and everyone on the floor is going to get assessed a bill for the repairs.
At this point just keep on shorting the financials & buy Gold.
No more naked shorts!
Anyway, you are absolutely right. Very well put. What I am worried about mostly in the short term is inflationary pressure. The Feds will certainly raise interest rates and that is going to cause another set of problems. The truth is exactly what you have said - we Americans are going to hold the bag for the bad lenders, bad banks and those who bit off more house than they could chew. It ain't gonna be pretty either. Millions and millions of us are going to be living much simpler lives the next few years and maybe that is good for our culture in the long run.
Yes the banks are to blame for giving people loans they can't pay. However it isn't only them. It is also the bank workers. If someone comes in and wants a home loan the worker does the math and even if the bank says this person can have the loan, that worker should say something about having the people figure out a budget and how much they can really pay and have them also figure in some things going up. I think both the bank and the person working there has that responsiblity. But they are not the only ones to blame. You have to put some blame on the government, I don't mean they should have a tighter leash on the banks that is a different argument and maybe they should. The federal Government from when I have been alive has all ways had a defficit so if they are barowing more money then they can pay back then that sends a bad example to the people, the same with the state and cities. To get money Now, and do things now instead of waiting is what is more important and the government sends that message to the people. Next people to blame are the credit card companies. There was a time that when you went to sears or where ever you shopped there was store credit you bought something and then you got your check and you paid it back. If you knew someone with an American Express Card they where rich and exclusive. The way it worked is you charged stuff and then in a months time you had to pay it all back. It wasn't like how all these cards are now where you can spend $2000 and by the time you pay in back with interest and minimum payments it is like paying back $3500. Back in the old days you went to Disney World you saved and paid in cash or check or some form you didn't charge everything. It that "I want it and I need it now". I blame retailers like Target and others, what happened to lay a way, bad for kids clothes. You put money down then pay on it each week and then when it is all paid you get it now. I think except K-mart if you ask about lay a way I would hate to know the reaction you get. I blame us the US Citizen who has to keep up with the Nieghbor and have the coolest phone, the nicest house, the big car and the boat, brand new Jordan's for there kids (but school supplies they come in second) so their kid can be fly and sometimes the kid can't even fucking walk. Hey if we aren't careful we will all have shot guns and our money in floor safes. I'm not saying I'm not part of the problem I used to Christmas Shop with a credit card. When I was at Canisius I would buy books on them, I would go to the Bookstore and buy food there with them. If you like to get philsopical ask the question who really won the could war? Then if things keep going the way they look like there going in our lovely country ask that question again (assuming we don't attack Korea and Iran and get blown to hell) in 20 years? Yes greed can spawn some great stuff sometimes but it can also be what will cause the 2nd great depression.
That is a sad state of the financial policy here. I didn't even have a credit card back home. They are becoming popular, however. Like chronic diseases are on the rise, so are financial irresponsibility and thoughtless spending. :/
I really am not savy enough (nor risk-taking enough) to short anything or buy commodities.
So basically, I am going to get screwed like most everybody else.
Except I live responsibly. We put down 20% when we bought our house (and we bought in super-cheap buffalo). We drive used, paid for in cash cars, and we spend less on going out in a month than many people do in a night.
Hopefully, this market will turn around sometime before I retire. I know it is supposed to, that this is supposed to be cyclical--it just doesn't feel that way.
Things have gotten way too screwed up in the past few years. I hope we can recover.
That second last paragraphs says it all.